Capital Daily Different inflation pictures, different bond market outcomes? Bigger falls in US core inflation than in the euro-zone or UK might mean government bond yields decline a bit more quickly in the US over the rest of this year, but ultimately we expect yields to fall... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election uncertainty in Spain The upcoming election in Spain may result in a change of government, but it is unlikely to change the country’s short-term economic fortunes. Low inflation and a rebound in tourism will help GDP... 11th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The economy and the next general election To the extent that economic conditions influence general elections, and of course they are not the be-all-and-end-all, the Prime Minister may want to wait as long as possible before going to the polls... 11th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction boom in Italy fizzling out We think that the huge expansion of the Italian construction sector over the past two years has run its course, as the reduction in construction subsidies and tighter financial conditions will reduce... 11th July 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May/Jun. 2023) The labour market became less tight in May and there are some signs of momentum in wage growth slowing a bit. But with wage growth still well above the levels consistent with the 2% inflation target... 11th July 2023 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q3 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 10th July 2023 · 1 min read
Event UK Drop In: June CPI - Macro and policy implications 1689753600 The UK CPI report for June will provide fresh evidence of whether the economy has a persistent inflation problem – and whether the Bank of England will need to do more in response.
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising vacancy to drag on Brussels office rent growth After a lacklustre 2022, the Brussels prime office market has had a brighter start to 2023, as rent growth accelerated while it slowed elsewhere in the euro-zone. But with a cooling jobs market set to... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the Bundesbank need recapitalising? There are circumstances in which the Bundesbank’s losses over the next few years could require it to be recapitalised by the German government. However, we think these are unlikely to occur and the... 10th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway Consumer Prices (June) In June, Norway’s inflation data were much stronger than expected for the second month running. While the Norges Bank has signalled a 25bp interest rate hike at its next meeting in August, June’s data... 10th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia & Saudi cuts; China’s control over critical metals Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil prices were... 7th July 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Yield curve’s recession warnings could be right this time The gilt yield curve is now the most inverted it has been in 23 years. That’s consistent with our view that a recession is just around the corner. Indeed, we think it’s only a matter of time before... 7th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble’s depreciation, Turkey’s adjustment in swing The depreciation of the Russian ruble gathered pace this week amid a continued squeeze on Russia's trade surplus and growing capital outflows. A weaker currency will support the fiscal position, but... 7th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 7th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone recession likely to have continued in Q2 The activity data published this week are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy contracted again in Q2. Next week, the ECB will publish the account of June’s meeting which is likely to... 7th July 2023 · 9 mins read
