Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker supply adds to Amsterdam office optimism Occupier demand in Amsterdam has been more resilient than we expected so far this year. In tandem with supply constraints caused by construction delays, this suggests that prospects for rental growth... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2023) July’s euro-zone PMIs are consistent with our non-consensus view that the currency union’s economy will remain in recession. But they also suggest that the labour market will remain tight, keeping... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE last to halt hikes and last to cut We think UK core inflation will ease to 2% by the end of 2024 as the effects of the rises in interest rates are felt. But the UK’s more persistent labour supply shortfall than elsewhere suggests this... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal pressures, Turkey’s policy shift on thin ice A raft of comments from senior policymakers at the Russian Ministry of Finance this week highlight the pressures that the public finances are under. For now, policymakers are responding by tightening... 21st July 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to hike again, Spain goes to the polls Data released this week support our view that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q2. Meanwhile, France’s government presented a plan to reduce its budget deficit next year but its plans are likely to... 21st July 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin industrial turnaround a sign of what’s to come After trailing the rest of Europe last year, the Dublin industrial market has had a change of fortune in 2023 as rent growth continued to improve. With industrial demand set to benefit from a... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (June) June’s retail sales and industrial production data out of Poland suggest that the economy held up relatively well last month, but we doubt that this is the start of a strong rebound in activity. We... 21st July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2023) June’s public finances figures revealed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing, bringing some cheer for the government on a day when it has lost two by-elections. But with... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2023) The further increase in retail sales volumes in June suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But our view that interest rates will rise further, from 5.00% now to a peak... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Focus A preview of the EU natural gas market this winter While the wholesale European natural gas price is now close to pre-energy crisis levels again, we don’t expect EU gas consumption to rise in response. Rather, we think that EU gas consumption has... 20th July 2023 · 11 mins read
ECB Watch Close to the peak but rate cuts a long way off There is little doubt that the ECB will raise its deposit rate by a further 25bp next week, to 3.75%. The September decision will be a much closer call but we think another 25bp then is most likely... 20th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Falling inflation may add further fuel to bond rally More evidence that inflation is falling back in most economies has pushed government bond yields down across developed markets (DMs) over the past couple of weeks. We think that disappointing growth... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Why Gilt yields and sterling may have further to fall Despite today’s big reaction in markets in the UK to better-than-expected inflation news, we still think investors are overestimating the peak in interest rates there and underestimating how much... 19th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Uneasy outlook for global commercial property We have made only minor changes to our latest global forecasts which still imply that property will underperform other assets in the short to medium term. Further out, real estate returns are set to... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Additional headwind from tighter fiscal policy Lower energy prices and the reinstatement of the EU’s fiscal rules will contribute to lower budget deficits in the euro-zone next year. Together with tighter monetary policy, this will help to dampen... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
