Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily BoE decision another reason to expect lower gilt yields Though investors appear to be increasingly moving towards our view of Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, we think the levels priced into the market beyond this year – and, accordingly, expectations for gilt... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Close to the summit, but rates to stay at the peak for a year Today’s 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates from 5.00% to 5.25% may be followed by another hike in September to a peak of 5.50%. But rates appear close to the summit. Even so, the Bank’s new... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (3rd Aug. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Addressing key questions from our offices Drop-In We recently held a Drop-in titled “Office Sector Armageddon – Who gets hit hardest?”, which you can view on-demand here. This Update addresses some of the specific European questions we received... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) The final euro-zone PMIs confirmed that economic conditions deteriorated in July, with the Composite index consistent with GDP declining slightly. We continue to expect the euro-zone economy to fall... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Easing core inflation drove headline inflation lower in July, but we don’t expect it to fall much further this year. Despite inflation now sitting within the 0-2% range the SNB equates with price... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Lessons on taming inflation from the 1970s and 1980s One key lesson from the bouts of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s is that core inflation faded only once a loosening in the labour market drove down the job vacancy rate to more normal levels. We... 2nd August 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Despite the easing in CPI inflation from 8.7% in May to 7.9% in June and core inflation from 7.1% to 6.9%, we think strong wage growth and the continued resilience of real GDP will mean interest rates... 1st August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EZ Unemployment (June) The euro-zone labour market remains extremely tight, with the unemployment rate steady at a record low in June. We expect weakness in activity to cause labour market conditions to loosen somewhat in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the surge in Warsaw industrial rents continue? Warsaw industrial rents have seen an unprecedented surge in recent months on the back of strong demand and supply constraints due to the war in Ukraine. And while growth is set to slow significantly... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) The slight fall in house prices in July is the first sign of the surge in mortgage rates since mid-May taking its toll. As we expect mortgage rates to remain around their current level for the next 12... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
