UK Economics Rapid Response Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at... 4th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Latest trade data spell good news for Iberian ports Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while... 4th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in June from its two-year high last month, but at 52.2 remains in expansionary territory. Both the commercial and housing balances retreated, with the... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) Switzerland’s inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May, but concerningly for policymakers, private services inflation rose for the fourth time in five months. We think the increasing... 4th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest activity data suggest that Russia’s economy continued to motor along in May, driven by stronger growth in industry. The economy is clearly overheating and this continues to fuel inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The shape of Labour's housing policy The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a sharper hit to office demand is set to weigh on US property returns over the next couple of years. Overall, the UK is set to outperform over... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The decision by Poland’s central bank (NBP) to leave its policy rate at 5.75% today came as no surprise and we doubt that policymakers will have scope to lower interest rates until the middle of next... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in June marks the start of a new phase of the disinflation process, and we are likely to see much steeper falls in the y/y inflation rate in July... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail rental growth pessimism appears misplaced The consensus is still downbeat on the outlook for retail rents, with growth expected to underperform even the struggling office sector. But with a decent consumer recovery on the horizon we think... 2nd July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (June 2024) It already seemed unlikely that the ECB would cut interest rates at its meeting in July, and June’s inflation data – particularly the continued strength of services inflation – will reinforce... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily French election first-round relief rally might not last Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to... 1st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany no longer immune to budget trouble Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While... 1st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (June) Inflation figures for Germany and other major euro-zone economies suggest that, after rising in May, euro-zone headline and core inflation edged back down in June. But services inflation remained high... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2024) May’s money and lending data provided a bit further evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade. Together with our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 5.25%... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
