Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs for February suggest that industrial sectors in Central and Eastern Europe are continuing to struggle, but there are tentative signs that the region may now be past the worst of... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) The further fall in house prices in February will keep optimism based on reports that demand has recovered in check. Indeed, even if buyer volumes have recovered, the amount they can spend on a new... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Rise in euro-zone bond yields may be overdone We think the recent rise in euro-zone government bond yields will reverse course over the rest of 2023, and that “periphery” spreads may widen a bit as investors’ risk appetite deteriorates. 28th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pandemic savings won’t rescue the economy The value of savings that households built up during the pandemic has been wiped out by inflation. Rising interest rates, together with a desire to rebuild the spending power of their savings, suggest... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Profit margins another potential threat to inflation outlook A widening in profit margins could mean that inflation is slower to fall back to the Bank of England’s 2.0% target than we expect. That would cause the Bank to raise interest rates even further than... 28th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Decarbonising UK residential – the biggest challenge? Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) are the main benchmark for environmental standards in UK housing. There is evidence that they are improving efficiency in new-builds and new regulations will... 27th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) The stabilisation of the EC’s economic sentiment indicator in February contrasts with the significant increases in the PMIs and provides some support for our view that the economy will struggle this... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession The effects of tighter monetary policy are clear in the money and credit data. Households and firms have continued to lock their money up in longer-term deposits which are less likely to be spent, and... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Values fall further The rise in prime property yields accelerated in Q4. Despite gains in all-property rents in most markets, this meant capital values fell across all sectors. Declines were particularly sharp in offices... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s economy one year on, Israel’s judicial reform Russia's war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary this week and one of the more surprising macroeconomic developments during this time has been the resilience of Russia's economy, which... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Investors’ hawkish shift is justified We don’t think that wage growth will ease to levels consistent with the 2.0% inflation target without weaker economic activity and a rise in the unemployment rate. The recent resilience of the economy... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns to stabilise in 2023 after brutal 2022 The surge in yields seen in 2022 will not be repeated in 2023. With much of the repricing occurring last year we think all-property equivalent yields will see only a modest rise of 30bps this year... 24th February 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q1 resilience, ECB losses The latest survey data for February suggest that the euro-zone economy is holding up better than we expected in Q1. However, a contraction is still well within the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, we... 24th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022, second estimate) The downward revision to German Q4 GDP means the hit to activity at the end of last year was closer to our original expectation. It also suggests a technical recession in Germany during Q4 and Q1 is... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Rental surge lifts capital values CEE yields continued to rise in Q4, but very strong rental growth prevented all-property capital values from falling for a second successive quarter. This turnaround was driven by retail and... 23rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
