Europe Economics Update New forecasts for Swedish inflation and the Riksbank During the coming months, we expect falling goods and energy inflation to pull down the headline inflation rate in Sweden. This should encourage policymakers to cut rates from 3.75% currently to 3.00%... 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in May and our regional-weighted measure edged down slightly. Even so, that still leaves... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May) and Unemployment (April 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for May is consistent with weak growth in euro-zone GDP, while price pressures are still strong but are continuing to ease. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think Bund yields will start falling before long We expect the 10-year Bund yield to fall by the end of the year as the ECB loosens policy more than investors are currently discounting. 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) The stickiness of inflation in April has led us to shift back our forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut from 5.25% from June to August. Even so, our view that CPI inflation will fall... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom. 29th May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (May 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed limited change on the previous forecast round in March. There was a small upward revision to all-property rental growth expectations for 2024, but a downgrade to... 29th May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2024) The tick up in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused demand to soften. As a result, house prices are likely to tread water over the coming months. But our forecast that Bank Rate will... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI (May) CPI inflation data published by the major German states this morning suggest that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation may come in a bit lower than expected and that though core inflation rose... 29th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK? While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes... 28th May 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar consolidates as yields edge higher across the board The dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, halting its slide over the past couple of weeks. Bond yields in the US rebounded this week, partly due to the Fed... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the Turkish lira turning a corner? Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency... 24th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly EU gas and carbon price rallies are on borrowed time The 12% rise in European natural gas prices this week bucked the trend of sharp falls in oil and precious metal prices. Nonetheless, with European gas demand set to stay subdued, and copious supplies... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economic tailwind for the election winner While the economic data released between now and the general election on 4 th July is unlikely to have a big influence on the result, further falls in inflation, interest rates and gilt yields may... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further thoughts on the latest wage data The wage growth data published this week were not good for the inflation outlook, but they weren’t as bad as they first appeared. Meanwhile, the latest news on economic activity has been encouraging... 24th May 2024 · 9 mins read
