UK Economics Weekly Some signs that higher interest rates are working Higher interest rates appeared to have started to take a bigger toll on bank lending in April and on businesses’ inflation expectations in May. These data will have reassured the Bank of England that... 2nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EZ downside inflation surprise points to more euro weakness While we suspect that interest rate differentials between the euro-zone and the US might start to put a degree of upward pressure on euro-zone government bond yields and the euro, we think that the... 1st June 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Recession postponed rather than cancelled Although the economy weathered the cost of living crisis much better than most expected, the full force of the cost of borrowing crunch has yet to be felt. And with it looking as though interest rates... 1st June 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE yields set to rise further In contrast to the deceleration across the rest of Europe, the rise in CEE yields in Q1 was bigger than in Q4, driven predominantly by the industrial sector. As the yield gap with the euro-zone is... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rates to stay higher for longer to quash inflation Growing evidence that UK price pressures are becoming increasingly domestically generated has driven up market interest rate expectations and at one point pushed the 10-year gilt yield up to 4.38% in... 1st June 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response UK Money & Credit (Apr. 2023) While the £7.3bn rebound in total UK bank deposits in April followed the £16.1bn decline in March and suggests that concerns over the stability of UK banks have faded, the more interesting development... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response BoE Mortgage Lending (April 23) The renewed decline in mortgage approvals in April will have dashed hopes that the jump in March marked the start of a recovery. Moreover, with mortgage rates now on their way back up, lending is... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May across Emerging Europe were either flat, or edged up slightly, providing further evidence that the worst of the regional downturn is probably now behind us. That said... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (May 23) House prices flattened off in May after a rise in April. But with mortgage rates now on their way back up we suspect that the stabilisation in prices over the last couple of months will soon give way... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany HICP (May) The fall in German headline inflation in May and signs that core price pressures eased echo the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to limit... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP (May) The fall in German headline inflation in May along with signs that core price pressures eased echoes the message from the inflation figures for France and Spain and supports the case for the ECB to... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Current account positions improve, but risks remain There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and... 31st May 2023 · 15 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations continue to improve but remain stretched European property valuations continued to improve in Q1 on the back of further increases in property yields as well as falls in government bond yields. Nonetheless, all office and industrial markets... 31st May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone construction set to weaken We think that the slump in demand for mortgages will more than offset the support from the high backlog of work and result in a sizeable contraction in euro-zone construction output in the coming... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update High immigration helps explain record rent rise High net immigration helps explain why rental growth accelerated to its fastest pace on record last year. Immigration won’t be as high this year, adding to the reasons to think that rental growth has... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
