Europe Rapid Response German GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) The downward revision to Germany’s Q1 GDP means that the country has fallen into a technical recession and that euro-zone GDP probably stagnated in Q1 rather than expanding by 0.1% q/q. We expect... 25th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update When will the ECB cut rates? History suggests that in the absence of a major financial shock, European central banks usually leave interest rates at their peak for a year or more. That’s consistent with our view that the ECB is... 24th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy divergence and what it could mean for markets Coming monetary policy divergence may have implications for sovereign bond markets, but we doubt it will be the key driver of FX markets where we think the threat of a recession looms. 24th May 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher interest rates for longer make a recession more likely The most troubling aspect of April’s inflation data, released earlier today, was evidence that price pressures are becoming increasingly domestically generated. Accordingly, we now expect the Bank of... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) Contradictory messages from the Ifo – which was very weak in May – and the Composite PMI mean the performance of the German economy in Q2 is uncertain. But regardless of how well the economy held up... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Yield rises show no sign of easing In contrast to the rest of Europe, CEE yields not only rose, but increased more sharply in Q1 than the previous quarter. Strong rental growth cushioned the blow to all-property capital values, but... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) The Bank of England won’t be able to ignore the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April and the rebound in core inflation to a new 31-year high. We now think it will raise interest rates... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” may not keep long-dated E-Z yields high The “higher for longer” story seems more plausible to us in the euro-zone than in the US, but we don’t think it will stop long-dated government bond yields from eventually falling there. 23rd May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s PMIs suggest that economic growth is being supported by the services sector while manufacturing activity continues to contract. The strength in services activity may be supporting persistent... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Resilient services sector keeping growth and price pressures strong The euro-zone Composite PMI fell slightly in May but is still consistent at face value with the economy expanding at a rapid pace in Q2. The survey also suggests that price pressures and the labour... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
