UK Data Response Public finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures got the new fiscal year off to a shaky start. But we doubt this will prevent the Chancellor from embarking on a fiscal splurge ahead of the next general election, due... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak external demand to weigh on exports National GDP data released so far suggest that euro-zone exports rose in Q1. However we suspect they will be more subdued in the coming quarters as a result of weak global growth. 22nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Labour activity and costs appear to be turning More convincing evidence of a loosening in the labour market and an easing in labour costs growth has started to emerge. It may not prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rate above 4.50%... 22nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly It’s Erdogan’s show, Poland’s giveaways, GDP wrap-up Sunday's presidential election result in Turkey has left Erdogan in pole position to win in the second round run-off on 28th May. If Erdogan does win, all eyes will focus on Turkey’s imbalances and... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly High migration won’t cool inflation pressures quickly Migration appears to be rebounding much faster than anyone expected. But the continued "mismatches" between workers and vacancies implies that migrants have not been effective at filling all the... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation (May 23) The larger than anticipated rebound in mortgage approvals in March and a slowdown (or even partial reversal) of house price falls suggested that the housing market downturn may have ended much earlier... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls slow, but further weakness ahead Capital value falls slowed in Q1 as the surge in euro-zone all-property yields cooled. But, with rent growth decelerating across all sectors, the increase in yields was still enough to drive another 4... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation down in Sweden, euro-zone stagnating As of this week, coverage of Switzerland and the Nordic economies will be incorporated, along with the euro-zone, in our expanded Europe Economics service. Among the Nordics, the key data release this... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much will ECB tightening affect GDP? Our best guess is that the impact of monetary policy tightening on euro-zone economic activity will be less than five percent of GDP, which is the lower end of a range estimated in an ECB Economic... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE downturns easing, but tepid growth to follow Economies across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have significantly underperformed the euro-zone and the rest of the world in recent quarters, which has its roots in the scale of the inflation shock... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ labour supply holding up relatively well The aggregate supply of labour in the euro-zone has recovered comparatively well from the pandemic, albeit with big differences between the major economies. But despite this, the labour market is very... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2023) The smaller-than-expected 1.9% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has turned a corner and that growth accelerated in q/q terms at the start of this year. Industry and... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the euro-zone’s exports After stalling at the end of last year export growth seems to have provided a boost to the euro-zone economy in the first quarter of 2023. However, we doubt that exports will be a major source of... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus office rental view still looks too sanguine May’s IPF Consensus Forecasts highlighted another upgrade to short-term euro-zone office rental expectations. Our figures remain significantly weaker for 2023. From next year, our view is closer to... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (April) Data published today confirmed that both headline and core inflation were little changed in April and that while core goods inflation has begun to fall, services inflation reached an all-time high... 17th May 2023 · 2 mins read
