Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by a smaller 25bp today, to 7.00%, were fairly hawkish and support our view that the base rate will only... 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update A little good news under the hood of services inflation Data released this morning suggest that May’s surprisingly large jump in euro-zone services inflation may have been due to the most unlikely of culprits: Taylor Swift. So to some extent, the ECB can... 18th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Fiscal constraints working against the green transition The tightening of fiscal constraints is putting pressure on politicians to pare back green investment ambitions. But kicking the fiscal can down the road on measures that could accelerate the green... 18th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non... 17th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A poor week for French bonds and equities French government bonds and equities have sold off this week, and the euro has weakened. A lot of bad news now seems priced in, but we suspect the discount on French assets is here to stay. 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Peak oil debate slightly misses the point The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of... 14th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France risk and ”reverse contagion” It is difficult to know how radical (or reckless) France’s next government will be on fiscal policy, but the risks to France’s public finances have certainly risen since the snap election was called... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (May) The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, remained at 2.3% in May, but the core measure (CPIF excluding energy) rose slightly for the second month in a row. We think the Riksbank will leave... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE not ready to follow in the ECB’s footsteps…yet Far more interesting than the probable decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 20th June will be any clues on how soon and how far rates will be cut. If inflation... 13th June 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office starts spell trouble for non-prime space The latest Crane Survey reported that a record high 16.4m sq. ft. of London office space was under construction in Q1. That in part reflects developers delaying projects until the demand outlook... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the next government deliver or deviate from its manifesto? While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to keep rates on hold for rest of the year The SNB is likely to keep rates on hold at 1.5% at its meeting next week as inflation in Q2 so far has been in line with the its forecast in March. Moreover, the latest data on wage growth were much... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
