Europe Commercial Property Update Resilient Stockholm office rents will falter before long Although rent growth has been resilient, as the Swedish economy enters recession and employment contracts, we think the recent slowdown in Stockholm office occupier demand will persist. And with new... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the euro to reverse course before long We think that the tailwinds supporting the rebound in the euro against the US dollar have largely run their course, and still forecast the EUR/USD rate to return to parity as advanced economies fall... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch Will 4.50% be the peak? With the financial markets and other forecasters having come round to our long-held view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.50%, the real question is whether a 25 basis points rise to 4.50% at the Monetary... 4th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update How US & E-Z bonds might fare as rate hikes conclude We forecast small further falls in the yields of long-dated US Treasuries and euro-zone sovereign bonds between now and the end of next year, as disinflation picks up steam and central banks turn more... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows the pace but the journey goes on The ECB’s decision to raise its deposit rate by 25bp to 3.25% was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the Bank is not pausing, and our view that... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Higher interest rates yet to take a big toll on activity We’ve been surprised that the rise in Bank Rate from 0.10% in November 2021 to 4.25% hasn’t triggered a contraction in GDP at the start of this year. Indeed, while higher interest rates were a further... 4th May 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Mar.) March’s money and credit data showed that the collapse of the US bank SVB and the takeover of Credit Suisse in early March triggered a small withdrawal of funds from the overall UK banking system... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) Even as commercial property investment has collapsed, net lending to property has been stable at close to zero since the start of the year. That suggests investors are building up war chests to snap... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) The rise in mortgage approvals in March was stronger than consensus expectations, reflecting the reversal of the spike in mortgage rates since the autumn. However, we don’t think that mortgage rates... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Will the BoE take rates above 4.5%? 1683813600 The market has finally come round to our long-standing view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5%, with the Bank of England to likely to deliver another 25 basis point hike when it meets on 11th&
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB: hawks rear their heads, but Q3 rate cut in play The Czech central bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected today, but it looks like policymakers set out to strengthen their hawkish rhetoric and downplay expectations of an... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election preview: the current state of play Parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May will make or break macroeconomic stability in Turkey. As things stand it looks more likely that opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu will become the... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Ingredients in place for lower food price inflation A combination of the falls in global agricultural commodity prices, energy prices and wage growth will soon drag down food CPI inflation from a 46-year high of 19.6% in March perhaps to around 4.5% by... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Lessons from the Q1 GDP data Available data for Q1 suggest that the global economy had a better start to the year than previously feared. That seems to have reflected the post zero-COVID rebound in China and its effects, a boost... 3rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
