Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: risk of fiscal complacency creeping in The Polish government’s white paper on Monday set out a scathing review of the previous government’s fiscal record and highlighted the challenges facing the public finances, but if we’ve learned... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Mar. 2024) March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is starting to fade, which supports our view that activity rebounded in Q1. And our forecast for... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National-level GDP (Q1 2024) The national-level data released so far this morning suggest that euro-zone GDP, which will be published in just under an hour, will show an expansion of 0.3% q/q in Q1. 30th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q1) The slightly better-than-expected Q1 GDP figures out of Hungary and Czechia suggest that economic recoveries had a little more momentum at the start of this year than we previously thought and that... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How the Bank of England will respond to UK inflation’s rapid retreat 9th May 2024, 3:00PM BST Despite global panic about the DM inflation outlook, we still think that price pressures in the UK are set to fade faster than most assume, opening the way for the Bank of Eng
US Commercial Property Update Share of remote work key to global office performance The wide divergence in global office market performance to-date has been driven by significant differences in the return to office and the impact that has had on occupiers’ leasing decisions. US... 29th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey & Germany State CPI (April 2024) The weaker-than-expected EC business and consumer survey for Ap ril is a reminder that the euro-zone economy is still weak. Meanwhile, the survey and inflation figures for Germany and Spain confirm... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in April, but our regional GDP-weighted measure of sentiment rose to a fresh two-year high... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine gets a boost, but funding fatigue still a risk The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a... 26th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery in activity won’t stop ECB rate cuts Survey data released this week suggest that the euro-zone is coming out of recession. But with activity still very weak and wage growth appearing to have eased so far this year, we remain comfortable... 26th April 2024 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stock market rally only a small support for consumers Our equity and house price forecasts imply household net wealth will rise significantly over the next three years. Even so, we estimate that household net wealth as a share of disposable incomes will... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The hawkish communications accompanying the decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to leave its key policy rate on hold today suggests that monetary easing will probably arrive later than we... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank rate cuts inching closer The continued decline in core inflation will make it difficult for Norges Bank to stick to its current guidance that it will leave interest rates unchanged until Q4. We suspect that the Bank will... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Still-weak sentiment consistent with sluggish recovery The latest RICS survey suggested that there was a further improvement in occupier and investment demand at the beginning of 2024. However, the big picture was one of a very weak market, reaffirming... 25th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Looser labour market may reduce foreign-born employment Foreign-born workers have been entirely responsible for the post-pandemic recovery in employment. But a gradual rise in labour market participation and a moderation in net migration may mean the share... 25th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 50.00% at today’s meeting, but the statement continued to strike a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation risks in the economy. While we think the... 25th April 2024 · 2 mins read
