Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration is unlikely to be enough to prevent a mild recession, with GDP contracting... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s next move likely to be a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its tightening bias today, the rest of its communications suggest that the Bank is growing more confident it has done enough to eventually get inflation back to... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower house prices will help pull down CPI inflation The renewed weakness in the housing market and likelihood that mortgage interest cost inflation will soon ease are reasons to expect core inflation to trend lower in the coming months. Next week, the... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on hold, may push back QT end date The business surveys point to rising recession risks and core inflation pressures were muted in September, suggesting that there is little chance of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next week... 18th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Output rapidly falling below potential The weakness of GDP growth in the second and third quarters means that the Bank of Canada is likely to make a marked re-assessment of its output gap estimates in its October Monetary Policy Report... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Oct.) The renewed increases in mortgage rates and new listings mean we now expect house prices to fall by 5% over the next six months. The big risk, however, is that we are underestimating the degree to... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys unlikely to prompt another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys show that businesses’ inflation expectations continue to decline, albeit slowly, and point to a growing risk that the economy will fall into recession... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The fiscal implications of the rise in bond yields Perceptions matter at least as much as actual policies in determining fiscal stability. Accordingly, the surge in bond yields over the past month poses the greatest risk to those countries where the... 16th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly From bust to boom and back again for housing The fall in house prices in September shows just how quickly conditions in the housing market have shifted and the plunge in the sales-to-new listing ratio points to more weakness to come. That is... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update What’s behind resurgent core inflation pressures? The recent strength of core inflation compared to that in the US is mainly due to a rebound in durable goods prices. That has little to do with demand, which has weakened to a greater extent in Canada... 11th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher bond yields mean more pain for housing The further rise in home listings in September and likelihood that mortgage rates will increase amid the global bond market sell-off suggests that house prices will soon fall again. While employment... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read