Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market strength buys the Bank more time The strength of the labour market in January is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada can wait a little longer before it starts to cut interest rates. We now forecast the first interest rate... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan.) Although the sharp rise in employment in January may paint a healthier picture of the labour market than what is under the surface, the Bank of Canada will still be concerned about the renewed decline... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Regional data lift lid on Canada’s climate credentials To mark the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank, this Update takes a closer look at the sub-national climate-related data in the country. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Productivity may finally be improving The upside surprise to fourth-quarter GDP should, somewhat counterintuitively, make the Bank of Canada more confident that inflation is heading back to 2% because it implies that productivity has... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Wage growth set to slow The recent acceleration in the Labour Force Survey measure of wage growth seems to be overstating wage pressures. The other wage indicators, which are normally more reliable, show far lower rates of... 1st February 2024 · 11 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Polluter-pays principle to become more mainstream Amid a flurry of news and action in carbon markets in recent months, this note examines the details and implications of developments around the world. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update With cuts almost in sight, we still see scope for DM yields to fall We think the recent falls in long-dated government bond yields across developed market (DM) economies will extend over the remainder of this year, as central banks generally cut by more than investors... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Monetary policy tanker slowly turning The outlook for monetary policy all depends on whether the Bank of Canada is willing to act based on where it thinks shelter inflation is heading, rather than its current rate. The Bank’s... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Rate cuts are coming into view The Bank of Canada’s decision to drop its tightening bias today is the first step toward interest rate cuts, particularly as the Bank also hinted that it may be willing to look through elevated... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Student visa cap makes the Bank’s job easier The new cap on international student visas is another reason to expect population growth to slow sharply. That will give the Bank of Canada confidence that CPI rent inflation will ease later this year... 23rd January 2024 · 4 mins read