US Data Response Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production data are a timely reminder ahead of this week’s Fed policy meeting that activity is bouncing back after the disappointment of the first quarter. What’s more, the latest... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability a major problem While the Canadian government has been tightening its macro-prudential housing rules over the past five years, housing valuations have continued to inflate and household financial leverage has climbed... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will focus on improving labour market GDP growth over the first half of this year could average less than 1% annualised. At the same time, however, labour market conditions have strengthened and price inflation appears to be picking up... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Apr. 14) The disappointing decline in manufacturing sales in April was entirely due to lower prices, whereas sales volumes continued to recover from the weather-related drop late last year. With sales now... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The trivial decline in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to 81.2 in June, from 81.9, was mainly driven by steadily rising gasoline prices. Since most of the other key... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage lending at a turning point? Tentative signs that rising house prices are increasing the ability of many households to meet minimum deposit criteria increase the chances that the most recent jump in mortgage applications might... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) The latest Teranet house price data provide some early evidence that the slowdown in house price inflation continued in May. The past decline in existing home sales and the steady rise in the number... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) Since the weak increase in retail sales in May is at odds with rising employment, easier access to credit and increasing household wealth, it probably won’t be long before sales start to rise more... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch New projections may signal chance of earlier rate hike While the Fed is unlikely to alter its tapering plans or the main message of its forward guidance at the FOMC meeting due to conclude on Wednesday 18th June, its new economic projections may prompt... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales and starts show fresh signs of life The most recent data have provided support for our view that the sharp drop in sales and starts seen over the past few months would prove temporary. New and existing home sales, as well as housing... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fading headwinds point to stronger GDP growth With credit more freely available and the fiscal drag fading, we anticipate that the economic recovery is finally about to shift into a higher gear. As the weather-related distortion in the first... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses warn about price pressures Recent trends in the small business sector highlight how an easing in credit constraints is oiling the wheels of growth and that a rise in both wage and price inflation may be lurking around the... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower Canadian dollar unlikely to catapult economy The Canadian dollar's decline, which began about a year ago, has reinforced the Bank of Canada's prior view that it's long-awaited export recovery is finally set to go. Over the past year, however... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The deleveraging process is largely over The bulk of the necessary deleveraging process, especially in the private sector, appears to have been completed. This means that when the Fed starts to raise interest rates in the middle of next year... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The 25,800 rebound in employment in May wasn't quite enough to reverse fully the slightly bigger decline in the previous month and it leaves the level of employment barely higher over the past six... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The robust 217,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in May is another illustration that the economy is back on the right track after the earlier weather-related weakness. 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
