US Economics Update Seasonal problems with the U6 unemployment rate Jack Welch's tweet wasn't the only piece of nonsense written last week about the reported decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% in September. The decline in the standard measure was questioned by... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update IMF still overly optimistic on Canada The IMF's revised economic growth outlook for Canada, which anticipates a slight pick-up in 2013 annual GDP growth, looks in our view to be overly optimistic. As we forewarned, the global economic... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage interest rates drop further on QE3 The announcement of the third round of quantitative easing, during which the Fed will buy $40bn of mortgage-backed securities per month until the outlook for the labour market improves ‘substantially’... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Bank deleveraging behind the slump in financial flows While the net external financial surplus, which offsets the current account deficit, has remained broadly unchanged at around 3% of GDP over the past few years, the separate financial inflows and... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment stalls The latest monthly data suggest that business investment contracted slightly in the third quarter, probably because of a growing caution with the fiscal cliff looming closer and the euro-zone crisis... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's consensus blowing 52,100 gain in employment seems at odds with the recent lacklustre pace of GDP growth. The increase in the unemployment rate, to 7.4%, from 7.3% in August, is more... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) While the modest 114,000 increase in September's non-farm payrolls was no better than the consensus forecast, the 86,000 upward revision to job gains in the two months before that and the decline in... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is America a country of part-timers? The sharp rise in the share of employees working part-time may not be as big a concern as it seems at first sight. After all, most of these extra part-timers are still working between 30 and 35 hours... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in small business optimism no game changer 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Leading indicators of unemployment rate provide little hope The indicators that provide some steer of where the unemployment rate is heading over the next few months supply little evidence that it will dip below 8%. What’s more, we doubt that GDP growth will... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep. 12) Mortgage interest rates have fallen further in response to the third round of quantitative easing. This translated into stronger demand for mortgages in the closing weeks of September, both from... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The latest rise in house prices provides further evidence that the housing market is staging an encouraging, if still quite modest, recovery. Improving sales volumes and tight supply suggest that... 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Lower inflation around the corner We expect annual CPI inflation to fall from an already muted 1.6% this year to only 1.2% next year, as GDP growth slows and economic slack increases. The outlook for 2014 looks much the same. 2nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What does Canada's new GDP methodology mean? Changes to Canada's quarterly national accounts methodology have resulted in a higher level of GDP. These important changes, however, have not significantly affected GDP growth and does not change our... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in September will boost hopes that some of the recent slowdown in economic growth was just a summer phenomenon. But while GDP growth may accelerate a bit, a... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
