Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep. 12) September's trade report confirms that exports were a major drag on overall third-quarter GDP growth, with net exports subtracting possibly as much as three percentage points. This evidence, combined... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep. 12) The unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit in September opens the door to an modest upward revision to third-quarter real GDP growth. The bigger picture is that the weak global backdrop will... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Upbeat small businesses don't alter broad picture The latest increase in CFIB's small business optimism index to a six-month high of 65.6 in October, from 62.0 in September, doesn't alter the big picture that the economy may have slowed further at... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing starts likely to slump next year Since early 2010, housing starts have been driven by the multi-unit sector, with single detached housing starts remaining broadly unchanged. The problem is that housing construction has been running... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama re-election doesn’t alter bigger picture The re-election of President Obama removes one uncertainty that has been weighing on the markets over the last few months. But they are none the wiser about if, how and when Congress will deal with... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct. 12) After rising strongly in the early part of October, mortgage applications have since dropped steadily despite the very low level of mortgage interest rates. This suggests that tight lending criteria... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Solving the business hiring/investment puzzle Businesses are developing a split personality. The slump in capital goods orders suggests that businesses are increasingly concerned about the looming fiscal cliff and/or the global economic slowdown... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) All of the small month-on-month fall in the CoreLogic house price index in September was down to predictable seasonal factors. After accounting for the usual slowdown at this time of year, house... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Further slump in wage growth unlikely We doubt that the fall in the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings to a record low in October is the start of another downward leg that will eventually end in outright declines in earnings... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Signs that willing sellers are returning Having fallen briefly following the announcement of QE3, MBS yields and mortgage interest rates were rising again in the final weeks of October. Of course, the bigger picture remains that mortgage... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses halt investment ahead of the fiscal cliff The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested that businesses are increasingly putting on hold investment decisions just in case Congress allows the fiscal cliff to hit. There is a growing... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers in path of perfect storm The fragility of the global economic recovery, as we have long forewarned, has resurfaced and signs point to a material slowdown in global growth and commodity prices. Unfortunately, the global... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct. 12) October's unexpectedly weak 1,800 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) can be forgiven given the unusually strong gains in the previous two months. The worsening economic outlook... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) We doubt that October's Employment Report is either strong enough or weak enough to have any marked impact on next week's presidential election. Non-farm payrolls increased by a better than expected... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How "good" economic data can be "bad" for commodities The slide in commodity prices today following the release of an apparently strong US Employment Report underlines their sensitivity to expectations of further monetary support. As it happens, the pace... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) A mild improvement in the global economy appears to be supporting American industry while, at the same time, the housing recovery has continued to strengthen. 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
