US Housing Market Focus Is the housing recovery the real deal? The housing recovery faces an array of headwinds, but we continue to think that it is sustainable. Although the recovery remains narrowly dependent on cash buyers and investors, outside of a few... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Sandy having lingering impact on labour market The lingering effects of superstorm Sandy mean that non-farm payroll employment probably increased in net terms by just 75,000 in November, which would be less than half the gain in October. The... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Third quarter wage growth looks robust Despite the modest drop back in September's non-farm payroll employment and average weekly earnings, third-quarter annualised growth in wages and salaries is likely to have accelerated to perhaps 8.0%... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Next move in rates more likely to be down than up We expect the Bank of Canada to stick with its tightening bias in next week’s policy statement and through the early stages of next year, before removing it completely by early March. By then we... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct. 12) The small fall in new home sales in October, and the downward revision to September’s figures, mean that the recovery in new home sales is looking a little weaker than we were previously led to... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) November's slight uptick in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a near-five-year high of 73.7, from 73.1 in October, appears to have been driven by lower gasoline prices. Despite... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) The third successive quarterly rise in national house prices is additional evidence that housing is experiencing a sustainable upturn. The fundamentals of very favourable housing valuations and... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Housing recovery an upside risk to inflation Unless the housing recovery proves to be much stronger than we expect, it won’t provide a worrying boost to core CPI inflation. Nonetheless, the housing market poses an upside risk to our view that... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Oct.) October's durable goods data suggest that the slump in business investment eased slightly last month. But we don't anticipate any marked turnaround until Congress gets its act together and reaches an... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Carney's departure bad timing for Canada Mark Carney's surprise decision to accept the head job at the Bank of England, after explicitly telling everyone he was not interested, adds to an already uncertain outlook for Canada. Moreover, it... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly US housing recovery welcomed news for exporters The nascent US housing recovery is welcomed news for Canada's exporters, though a full fledged US economic recovery is likely to remain elusive for another year or two. Nonetheless, we anticipate some... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in house prices will reduce negative equity The housing recovery continues to go from strength-to-strength. House prices have risen by 5% over the past 12 months and there is an upside risk of a further acceleration. The faster prices rebound... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct. 12) Although core inflation, which remained at 1.3% in October, was slightly firmer than the consensus forecast of 1.2%, it remains well below the 2% policy target. Given the third-quarter economic... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep. 12) September's disappointing flat retail sales volumes, paired with a decline in wholesale trade and a modest increase in manufacturing sales, indicates that monthly GDP grew by just 0.1% m/m in... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing stagnation comes before the fall The recent decline in the sales-to-listings ratio points to home price stagnation ahead, a prospect that has already begun to scare away some condo investors. In Vancouver and Toronto, existing condo... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Housing continues to strengthen Amid all the serious downside risks to the economic outlook, including the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff negotiations and the possibility of a resurgence of the crisis in the euro-zone, the... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
