US Employment Report Preview Ending the year on a high Jobs growth probably accelerated in December, as a few more employees finally returned to work after the disruptions caused by superstorm Sandy. Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal cliff deal falls a long way short of what is needed The fiscal cliff deal approved by both Houses of Congress to avert most of the scheduled tax increases is better than nothing, but it didn’t include a provision to raise the debt ceiling, and the... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The very modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.7 in December, from 49.5, illustrates that the factory sector ended last year still caught between the cross-fire of a global economic... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The rise in home purchase mortgage applications in December took the run of increases to four months. Admittedly, they remain low by past standards. But at least these data add to the growing sense... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal cliff end-game still in sight, maybe The negotiations to avert the fiscal cliff are, as we always expected, going down to the wire. This is supposed to be political theatre. The failure of Boehner's "Plan B" illustrates that any deal has... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly How will 2013 differ from 2012? Our bearish call a year ago for moderate to weak GDP growth, subdued inflation and prolonged low interest rates is looking prescient now that the slumping housing market threatens to upset Canada's... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) & CPI (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m gain in October's GDP, which partly reflected a rebound in oil and gas extraction, suggests that the economy began the fourth quarter on a somewhat stronger footing. The pace of economic... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Personal Income/Spend. & Durable Goods (Nov.) November's personal income/spending and durable goods reports suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a little stronger than we previously thought. We are revising our forecast up from 1.5% to... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov. 12) Another strong gain took existing home sales above the five million mark, and to a three-year high, in November. Moreover, supply conditions tightened further and are consistent with house prices... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 12) The 0.3% m/m bounce back in retail sales volumes in October, together with the large increase in wholesale trade reported yesterday, suggest that monthly GDP inched higher, stronger than the... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing downturn intensifies A prolonged housing downturn means that economic growth will be much weaker over the next two years. Gains in business investment and somewhat better export growth, though, will help to buffer... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov. 12) The fall in housing starts in November should prove to be no more than a temporary set-back. The forward-looking indicators point to a decent rise in starts in December, and a continued underlying... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industry stagnating There are some signs that the recent stagnation in manufacturing output won’t last long. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose to a seven-month high in December and, although the headline index of the ISM... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small firms and high-income households more downbeat The recent falls in sentiment of small businesses and high-earning consumers highlight that the fiscal cliff stand-off is weighing on activity. But the resulting hit to the economy may not be too... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderating housing trends mimic US slowdown The continued decline in existing home sales support our view that a potentially severe housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower heading into next year, then sharper... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will 2013 be a break-out year for the US economy? We anticipate that US GDP growth will be a modest 2.0% in 2013, before picking up to 2.5% in 2014. There are still downside risks, particularly the possibility of a renewed crisis in the euro-zone or... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
