US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) The further rise in housing starts in October confirms that the previous month’s very strong gain was not an unsustainable surge. With housing starts rising by 41.9% over the past year, it’s clear... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economic growth likely to remain sluggish Canada's economy is entering a slow growth zone. With external headwinds continuing to challenge exports and business confidence, stagnation in the domestic housing market is further casting doubt... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The improvement in existing home sales, which continued in October, is being driven by the very favourable level of housing valuations and affordability. The combination of rising demand and tight... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broad M3 monetary aggregate edged up slightly to 5.5% in October and, with the Fed hinting at an expansion of its QE3 large-scale asset purchases in the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower gasoline prices a timely boost The encouraging noises emanating from Washington make it more likely, although it is still far from certain, that a deal to prevent the fiscal cliff will be reached and that any adverse impact on the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Government well positioned to weather storms The federal government's updated fiscal plan released last week, which reiterated the commitment to control program spending, is likely to come undone next year if, as we fear, economic growth slows... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Interpret Black Friday sales with caution We would warn against reading too much into the performance of retail sales on Black Friday as there is little evidence that it will set the tone for sales during the whole holiday season. More... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) The decline in mortgage delinquencies in the third quarter is another encouraging sign that the housing market is improving. In particular, it means that the shadow inventory of homes in imminent... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's moderate 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing sales volumes, which was largely bolstered by a jump in aerospace, supports the view that Canada's economy grew by 0.2% m/m. Nevertheless, this... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The annual rate of CPI inflation edged back up to 2.2% last month, from 2.0%, but will drop back before year-end thanks to the continued decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation remained unchanged... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal cliff still likely to be averted We still expect the newly re-elected President Obama and Congress to reach an agreement to avert most of the scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts that would otherwise kick in at the start of next... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage demand picking up? Conflicting signals make it hard to draw firm conclusions, but the balance of evidence increasingly suggests that mortgage-dependent buyers are starting to make more of a contribution to the housing... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s retail sales figures suggest that consumption has lost a bit of momentum ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. If this was due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, then sales will... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are restrictions on home buyers too onerous? Although federal regulatory tightening of mortgage insurance rules and other lending principles have upset housing, we believe the new restrictions on home buying are prudent rather than too onerous... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Focus quickly shifts to fiscal cliff negotiations Some have argued that the election result, which maintained the broad status quo of a divided Congress, was the worst possible outcome for the fiscal cliff negotiations. But as far as the fiscal cliff... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to 84.9 in November, from 82.6, appears to have been driven by a combination of the recent drop back in gasoline prices and the... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
