US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but a range of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is China behind the decline in US Treasury yields? The rally in the US government bond market this year has coincided with a pick-up in China’s netpurchases of long-term Treasury securities, which some have attributed to intervention to weaken... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) The sharp drop in housing starts in June suggests that the shortage of labour and lots is weighing on construction volumes. But the excess of household formation over homebuilding suggests that the... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower interest rates won't prevent slowdown Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The monetary policy statement shows that the Bank of Canada isn't concerned about higher inflation, since the recent rise is due to temporary factors, rather than improvements in economic fundamentals... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The 1.6% m/m increase in the volume of manufacturing sales in May, which was partly due to production recommencing at several petroleum refineries, suggests that GDP grew by 0.2% that month. This in... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Survey evidence sheds light on homebuilder labour shortages Homebuilders are encountering shortages of skilled labour in the carpentry and framing trades required early in the homebuilding process. These shortages are leading to higher new build house prices... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jun.) The modest 0.1% m/m gain in manufacturing output in June looks disappointing, but the manufacturing sector actually enjoyed a strong second quarter and the improvement in the survey evidence points to... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy able to cope with higher US interest rates We do not think the global recovery will be derailed by tighter US monetary policy during the comingtwo years. This is because the Fed is unlikely to raise rates aggressively, other central banks are... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation continued to decelerate in June, to 4.4% from 4.6% in May. The past decline in the existing home sales... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Sales figures better than they look At first glance, the apparently lacklustre 0.2% m/m increase in June's retail sales, which was well below our own 0.6% estimate, would seem to suggest that consumption ended the second quarter on a... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unlikely to take aim at rising currency While the Bank of Canada's hopes for an export revival could be thwarted by the recent resurgence in the Canadian dollar, it has few options other than cutting interest rates to try and turn things... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Quality of jobs being created is above average Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Canada's shocking 9,400 decline in employment, following almost no gains over the previous six months, suggests that the economy is really struggling. Clearly, the economy just isn't benefitting from... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries vulnerable to a recalibration of rate expectations Ignoring term premiums, the yield of a “risk-free” government bond is a reflection of the short-term rates that are expected until it matures. So if the Fed raises the federal funds rate, there ought... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Core inflation will continue to rise The recent rise in core inflation is not just “noise” as Janet Yellen suggested and instead a large partof it is linked to a decline in the amount of spare capacity in a number of different sectors... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
