US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Despite the increase in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a near-five-year high of 72.2 in October, from 68.4 in September, annualised consumption growth is unlikely to post a... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What to make of the decline in the jumbo mortgage rate spread? At face value, the decline in the spread of jumbo mortgage interest rates over the rates on conforming loans is one of a number of signs that restrictions on the availability of jumbo mortgages have... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks more willing to lend, but demand faltering The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) shows that banks are more willing to lend, but the problem is that, with global economic growth slowing and the fiscal cliff looming, US households... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The surprising 0.1% m/m decline in monthly GDP for August suggests the economy might have struggled to grow by even 1% annualised in the third quarter, below our previous estimate of 1.4%. Given the... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Vehicle sales could drive faster GDP growth Favourable pricing and financing conditions mean that the pent up demand for new vehicles created during the recession could soon be released. Such a surge in new vehicle sales has the capacity to... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economic impact of Hurricane Sandy likely to be small The flooding and power outages across large parts of the East Coast mean that Hurricane Sandy will undoubtedly hit economic output in the short-term. Some of that output will be made up before the end... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q3/Aug) Even with the housing recovery well underway, the share of Americans who own their own home remains more or less at a 16-year low. This fact is a reminder that, to date, the recovery still owes a lot... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Further consensus growth downgrades likely lie ahead The downgraded consensus of private-sector GDP forecasts surveyed by the federal government for its upcoming fiscal update still looks overly optimistic. Further negative growth surprises to the... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ADP revamp should be treated with caution Recent changes to the way the ADP calculates its measure of employment means it now has an even closer historical relationship with the official payroll data. But what really matters is whether it is... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada not immune to potential sub-prime problems The sub-prime mortgage crisis is often miscast as the cause of the US housing bust and that because Canada's sub-prime industry is supposedly much smaller in comparison, fears of a similar housing... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Election going down to the wire Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, the chances of the victor having a compliant Congress appear to be fading fast. So even if Romney won, the most likely scenario is still that a deal... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 12 1st Estimate) The US economy expanded by a solid 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, up from 1.3% in the second, as a pick-up in consumption growth more than offset a decline in business investment. We suspect... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment data swept up in pre-election hoopla As the last major piece of economic news to be released before the Presidential election, October’s Employment Report will attract even more attention than normal, with both parties attempting to spin... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep.) Bizarrely, even though September's durable goods report shows an above-consensus 9.9% m/m rebound in orders, the overall report is a disappointment that signals third-quarter GDP growth was weaker... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homebuilders benefiting from lower distressed supply The continued drop in the supply of distressed homes on the market is encouraging homebuilders to break ground on more sites. Admittedly, with a substantial overhang of properties still in the shadow... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Strong payrolls survey encouraging for third-quarter GDP The recent strength in non-farm payroll data, which have showed solid gains in both employment and average weekly earnings, indicates that an improvement in third-quarter wages and salaries growth... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
