US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in September will boost hopes that some of the recent slowdown in economic growth was just a summer phenomenon. But while GDP growth may accelerate a bit, a... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Single-family rentals: the next big thing? The housing crash has created the ideal conditions for institutions to invest in single-family rented housing. But this looks like a one-time opportunity. As house prices recover, so investor interest... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds stacking heavily against condo soft landing Slumping home sales is casting a dark shadow over prospects for new housing construction. Although the recent surge in multi-unit housing starts might sustain the elevated level of overall housing... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Burgeoning housing recovery won't transform GDP growth The promising recovery in the housing market will continue during the fourth quarter and next year. But because housing accounts for only a tiny share of GDP, the recovery won’t transform the US from... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul. 12) July's stronger than expected 0.2% m/m increase in GDP, partly due to a rebound in petroleum and auto manufacturing, follows a weak downward revised 0.1% m/m advance in the month before. Given growing... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview No signs of faster jobs growth Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment rose by around 100,000 in September, which would suggest that labour market conditions remain lacklustre. 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Aug.) & GDP (Q2 3rd Est.) Don't panic. The massive 13.2% m/m slump in durable goods orders in August was largely due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. In addition, the downward revision... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) New home sales declined fractionally in August. However, with the new-build premium sharply lower and mortgage rates falling to record lows, we expect them to resume their upward trend before too long... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Pick-up in consumption growth likely to be temporary Although consumption growth has been fairly weak in the first half of this year, favourable income trends and a rebound in July's retail sales suggest that it may have picked up a little in the... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How has the Fed's reaction function changed? The Fed's decision to restart its large-scale asset purchases, this time with an open-ended agency MBS programme, is part of what could potentially be a much wider shift in the monetary policy... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Thanks to the continued rally in equity prices, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence shot up to a seven-month high of 70.3 in September, from 61.3 in August. It appears that... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) The sixth successive monthly rise in house prices in July supports our view that, even with the broader economic recovery struggling to gain traction, the housing recovery is sustainable. 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales volumes was somewhat stronger than we had assumed, but only helps to offset declines in wholesale trade and manufacturing sales, which we think restrained July's... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed‘s purchases of MBS may have limits QE3 could eventually leave the Fed holding nearly 30% of all mortgage-backed securities, making it a bigger player in the market than either banks or mutual funds. This suggests that, unless economic... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Businesses are not hoarding more cash It is encouraging that, faced with the prospect of the US economy hitting the fiscal cliff at the end of the year, businesses have not started to hoard more cash. At the same time, though, there is... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally looks overdone The recent surge in the Canadian dollar coincides neatly with the general rally in equity and commodity markets. The economic fundamentals that would typically justify this movement, however, are... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
