US Economics Weekly Debt deleveraging continues Despite the ongoing euro-zone crisis, the looming fiscal cliff and a drop back in the value of their financial assets, US households actually increased their debts in the second quarter by $74bn at an... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update NAHB index overdoing the homebuilding recovery The homebuilding sector is recovering and we expect housing starts to post a decent year-on-year gain both this year and next. Nevertheless, a surge in starts on the scale implied by the NAHB... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE3 may dwarf other central bank policies The sheer size of the Fed’s QE3 policy becomes even more apparent when it is compared to the policies of other central banks. Although we doubt that QE3 will set the US economy alight, the greater... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing correction only just beginning Canada's already lacklustre rate of economic growth is only going to slow further as the housing correction intensifies. Home sales are now falling sharply and it is only a matter of time before... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Markit Manufacturing PMI & Philly Fed (Sep.) The key message from the host of September manufacturing surveys recently released is that conditions haven’t really deteriorated since last month, but industry is still the weakest part of the... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US economy hit by global slowdown The global economic slowdown appears to be having a more marked impact on the US economy, with exports falling sharply in July and manufacturing output dropping in August. The survey evidence now... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing correction begins in earnest The decade-long run-up in home prices, which has seen prices rise in some cities by over 150%, is now going into reverse, with national home prices falling in August for the first time in more than... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts & Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Consistent with our view that the housing market is experiencing a sustainable recovery, today’s data releases showed a further improvement in housing activity. 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is QE3 a success after all? The early evidence suggests that the Fed’s latest policy actions have already started to have their desired effect on financial markets. But there are large question marks over whether these moves... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing bubble bursting? The recent slump in home sales suggests that a housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower over the remainder of this year, then the typical lag relationship between... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 12) The annual growth rates of the various broad money aggregates have slowed recently, but they will accelerate again as the Fed restarts its quantitative easing, this time purchasing $40bn of mortgage... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are things better than four years ago? The fall in the real median household income to a 16-year low in 2011 means that many Americans are worse off now than they were when President Obama first took office. But the whole economy is... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stalling exports adds to economy's woes The surge in Canada's monthly trade deficit to a record high of C$2.34bn in July illustrated that the deteriorating global economic backdrop is beginning to have a very marked impact. The widening of... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How positive is QE3 for housing? Further MBS purchases by the Fed won’t engineer the same drop in mortgage interest rates that earlier rounds did, and with mortgage-dependent buyers playing a relatively marginal role in the housing... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Despite the sharp increase in gasoline prices and the looming fiscal cliff, the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence rose to a four-month high of 79.2 in September, from 74.3 in... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The main message from August’s retail sales and industrial production data is that economic growth remains subdued, and it could yet get weaker. 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
