US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The modest 0.8% m/m rise in durable goods orders in April was largely due to an unexpectedly strong surge in defence orders. Indeed, excluding defence, orders actually fell by 0.8% m/m, almost exactly... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (May) The rebound in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 83.0 in May, from 81.7, is mainly a reflection of the improving labour market conditions, the upward trend in equity prices and... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q1 14) The first quarter Case-Shiller figures provide further evidence that the slowdown in the pace of house price gains that we have been expecting is now in train. It’s not implausible that the year-on... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might QE in the euro-zone mean for bonds elsewhere? It has been suggested that one important factor keeping US Treasury yields low is the prospect of a further loosening of monetary policy by the ECB, including some form of explicit quantitative easing... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy struggling to shrug off winter blues In contrast to the upbeat news coming out of the US, the more Canadian data we see on economic activity in March, the less reassured we are that the softness in the preceding three months was just a... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses testing their pricing power Our view that core inflation will increase faster than the Fed expects is based on expectations that both rent of shelter and medical inflation will continue to rise and that an acceleration in wage... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr. 14) In April, new home sales reversed most of the previous month’s decline to stand just4% below the high seen in October last year. Alongside yesterday’s modest rise inexisting home sales, the data... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The expected increase in headline inflation, to 2.0% in April from 1.5% in March, mainly reflects higher energy price inflation which should prove to be temporary. In contrast, core inflation only... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Job creation still lacking quality While the pace of Canadian job creation appears to have slowed somewhat, the corresponding deterioration in job quality is more perplexing. Lower-wage part-time employment appears to be taking the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.14) Existing home sales registered their first rise in four months in April. And to the extent that a lack of stock has been holding back activity rates in recent months, the further rise in the number of... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The unexpected decline in March's retail sales volumes, combined with the mixed showing in wholesale and manufacturing sales, suggests that the economy continued to struggle at the end of the first... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Price pressures are strengthening There is now enough evidence to conclude that price pressures are strengthening. The increase in CPI inflation to 2.0% in April left it in line with the Fed’s target and core inflation rose to an... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy to benefit from a larger wealth effect The recent upward revisions to our equity price forecasts imply that the boost to GDP growth this year from the wealth effect will be larger than we previously thought. This is one reason why, despite... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions ease further Bond yields and interest rate expectations have declined during the past few weeks. Moreover, our measure of the monetary base in advanced economies has expanded further as the Fed and BoJ have... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr 14.) The rise in the annual growth rate of our measure of the M3* money stock, to a nine month high of 5.8% in April from 5.5% in March, is consistent with the recent rebound in core CPI inflation to... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing correction only a matter of timing While the recent strength of Canada's housing market has been astounding, the regional breakdown reveals that it has begun to fray at the edges. With house prices already declining in some smaller... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
