The modest 0.8% m/m rise in durable goods orders in April was largely due to an unexpectedly strong surge in defence orders. Indeed, excluding defence, orders actually fell by 0.8% m/m, almost exactly matching the consensus forecast of a 0.7% decline. Nevertheless, after the upward revision to the gain in March, which is now estimated to have been as strong as 3.6% m/m, the overall picture is still encouraging.
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