US Housing Market Update How positive is QE3 for housing? Further MBS purchases by the Fed won’t engineer the same drop in mortgage interest rates that earlier rounds did, and with mortgage-dependent buyers playing a relatively marginal role in the housing... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Despite the sharp increase in gasoline prices and the looming fiscal cliff, the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence rose to a four-month high of 79.2 in September, from 74.3 in... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The main message from August’s retail sales and industrial production data is that economic growth remains subdued, and it could yet get weaker. 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul. 12) The surprising 2.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in July, partly due to volatility in aerospace, casts doubt over whether or not the economy actually grew in that month. This weakness... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) Consumer prices increased by a sizeable 0.6% m/m in August, largely thanks to a 9.0% m/m rebound in gasoline prices. Nevertheless, even after that big monthly gain, the annual rate of inflation only... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed launches open-ended QE3 The Fed today announced an open-ended QE3 focused on MBS purchases and extended its conditional commitment to leave its policy rate at near-zero through mid-2015. There were numerous other tweaks to... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How concerning is the high contract cancellation rate? It’s obviously not good that 15% or more of all contracted home sales aren’t making it through to closing. But to the extent that the increase in the cancellation rate reflects would-be buyers’ desire... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack High household debt difficult to hurdle Households have been running a financial deficit for over a decade, a significant departure from their normal role as net savers, resulting in a massive increase in household debt. This trend has... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The fiscal cliff – some scenarios We think there is a 70% chance that Congress will reach a last minute deal to prevent the $600bn of tax hikes and spending cuts that form the fiscal cliff from kicking in at the start of 2013. But... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Nominal GDP targeting remains a distant prospect Professor Michael Woodford's recent academic paper presented at the Fed's Jackson Hole conference is still making waves, not surprisingly given his conclusions that quantitative easing doesn't work... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Land values begin to rise The combination of rising sales volumes and a dwindling inventory of homes for sale saw house prices rise again in the latest data. Depending on which of the major house price indices we look at... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Don't fret about prospect of lower US credit rating Today’s announcement by Moody’s that it will probably strip America of its AAA credit rating is not “new news” and shouldn’t cause any major waves in the bond market. The US fiscal position has been... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) July’s trade figures are nowhere near as good as they look at first sight, as they mask a significant deterioration in export growth to the euro-zone. What’s more, the full impact on the US economy... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul. 12) July's 1.6% m/m drop in export volumes was weaker than we had assumed, which suggests that net exports might remain a drag on GDP growth this quarter. This increases the chance that economic growth... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses boost hiring plans The modest rebound in the NFIB small business optimism index to a three-month high of 92.9 in August, from 91.2, is encouraging, but the index is still well below its pre-recession level, suggesting... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Return to a gold standard neither practical nor desirable The historical experience of the gold standard is that countries often saw periodic declines in their gold stocks, which triggered either a corresponding contraction in money or a hike in interest... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
