Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The weaker than expected 5,700 decline in employment in January, was a poor start to the year and provides more evidence that the economy is struggling to cope with the collapse in oil prices. The... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Although the 151,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January was below the consensus forecast of a 190,000 gain, the rest of the employment report was very encouraging, with the unemployment rate... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is US oil production falling? US oil production has been surprisingly resilient since oil prices collapsed in 2014 as companies have slashed costs and jobs and concentrated on only the most productive sweet spots. In this Energy... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity stagnation is biggest medium-term threat Putting aside the short-term threats from slower global economic growth, the stronger dollar and tightening financial conditions, the biggest medium-term threat to the living standards of Americans is... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline jumped again last week, primarily due to an increase in imports of crude and weak demand for products respectively. However, the weather probably bears at least... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jan.) The decline in the ISM non-manufacturing index to 53.5, from 55.8 is disappointing, particularly as it continues a sharp downward trend from the peak of 59.6 last July. Fed officials will be concerned... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A fall in mortgage interest rates helped to boost mortgage applications in January. And although we think rates will increase this year, a strong labour market and easing in lending standards will... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) While we wouldn’t place too much faith in December’s reading of a strong 1.5% m/m gain in house prices, the latest CoreLogic report continues the recent theme of gradually rising house prices as... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Mixed outlook for the major commodity currencies The recovery in commodity prices over the last week or so has eased the selling pressure on the dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada since the start of the year. However, we wouldn’t be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Demand for business loans slumps The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a fairly sharp drop-off in the growth rate of loans to businesses, which suggests that investment will remain muted in the first half of this year... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The modest increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.2 in January from 48.0 is somewhat encouraging but, more broadly, the manufacturing sector is still struggling to cope with the stronger dollar... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has household formation stalled? The sharp slowdown in household formation in the final quarter of 2015 reflected base effects, and is not a cause for concern. In any event, even though a lack of available homes will act as a... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty unlikely to clear for another few months The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely last week, but it was deliberately non-committal about the risks to the outlook. It's debatable whether the current uncertainty will... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation will fall further below 2% this year The sinking Canadian dollar has prevented the annual core CPI inflation rate from falling below the mid-point of the Bank of Canada 1% to 3% inflation target range, despite the worsening economic... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) After stagnating in October, the economy grew by 0.3% m/m in November, albeit partly on account of what we believe was a very short-lived rebound in oil production. As things stand now, we estimate... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
