US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview Our econometric model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.4% m/m gain in average... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Have homebuilders shut out first-time buyers? In recent years, homebuilders have focussed on constructing more expensive properties. However, that primarily reflects builders responding to underlying demand conditions. So, for the most part, we... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories hit a new record for the sixth consecutive time last week as a surge in imports filled storage tanks. On the other hand, gasoline stocks fell sharply and US crude oil... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal stimulus budget won’t boost economy The 2016 Federal budget delivered today provides only a modest fiscal stimulus response to the flagging economy. Despite the more dismal GDP growth outlook this year, policymakers weren’t comfortable... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US equities? We have revised up our forecasts for the S&P 500 slightly and now project that it will make more headway after recouping all the ground that it lost earlier this year. Nonetheless, we don’t expect the... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The large 7.1% m/m drop in existing home sales in February is down to chronically low numbers of homes for sale. With limited prospect of the supply situation improving any time soon, existing home... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Soft patch in consumption only temporary Last week’s weaker than expected data on retail sales and the drop in utilities production in February suggest that real consumption growth has started the year on a softer footing than initially... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The decline in the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence to 90.0 in March, from 91.7, illustrates that higher gasoline prices more than offset the positive impact to sentiment from... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally won’t be sustained The recent rally in the Canadian dollar, which has been driven by rising oil prices and downgrades to the outlook for US interest rates, is unlikely to last beyond the middle of this year. Admittedly... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook House prices set to rise by 6% in 2016 There has been no let-up in the very tight market conditions which have characterised the housing market in recent months. With housing demand rising steadily on the back of low mortgage interest... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed dovish today, but should turn more hawkish later The Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50% today, while also lowering its projections for the pace of future rate hikes. Nevertheless, as inflation continues to rise and... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US inventories of crude oil rose for the fifth consecutive time last week, despite a fall in US oil production and an increase in inputs to refineries. What’s more, gasoline stocks declined again as... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The much stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes in January is an encouraging start to the year, with the details reflecting stronger external demand and some resilience in... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Feb.) Despite lower gasoline prices weighing on headline CPI inflation, the much bigger story is the surge in core inflation to a four-year high of 2.3% in February, which illustrates that the Fed can’t... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) As expected, housing starts rose in February, following two consecutive months of declines. Homebuilders are benefitting from the combination of rising housing demand and a shortage of existing homes... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Feb.) The February retail sales report was disappointing (taking account also of downward revisions to January data) and means that the risks to our forecast for first quarter-GDP growth of 2.5% annualised... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
