US Economics Weekly What is behind the slowdown in consumption growth? The revelation last week that spending in January was much weaker than initially thought, coupled with the modest increase in February, means that real consumption growth probably slowed to around 2.0... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Our key calls for this year Despite the recent resurgence in economic growth, we still expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again, albeit not until much later this year. While widening interest rate differentials... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 215,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in March highlights once again that, even though GDP growth has been underwhelming over the past six months, the labour market remains unusually strong. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m increase in January GDP, which was double the 0.3% m/m consensus estimate, was a very welcome surprise, particularly as the gain was so broad-based. We are not convinced the stronger tone... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will worsening affordability halt the housing market recovery? Even with our above-consensus views on house price growth and interest rate hikes, a rise in earnings growth will help keep mortgage payments as a share of income below their long-run average over the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the participation rate continue to rebound? The recent surge in labour force participation has been concentrated among low-skilled workers, which may be artificially depressing average hourly earnings. But with this trend unlikely to last and... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Brazil Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth dipped at the start of this year, but this appears to have been driven by deepening problems in Brazil and a recent soft patch in India. China’s... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yellen remarks underline the pivotal role of oil prices Despite the dovish spin put on Janet Yellen’s latest remarks, global markets will probably stillhave to contend with more Fed tightening this year. However, the prices of many commodities, including... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) We are not overly concerned by the slowdown in the annual growth rate of our broad M3 money measure to a five-year low of 3.5% in February, particularly not when bank loans are still expanding at more... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the decline in profits mean a recession is coming? The 11.5% decline in corporate profits last year, which included a 7.8% decline in the fourth quarter alone, doesn’t necessarily mean that a recession is imminent. Admittedly, profits usually begin to... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 96.2 in March, from 94.0, suggests that the rebound in stock markets more than offset the impact of higher gasoline prices in... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.) House prices in January increased by a solid 0.5% m/m at the national level. Rising demand and low housing inventory are combining to put upwards pressure on prices - a set of conditions we expect... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Fed can’t ignore pick-up in core inflation much longer It is becoming increasingly apparent that many Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which inflation will rise in the second half of the year. Fed officials expect core PCE inflation will... 28th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Liberal’s infrastructure spending won’t boost economy The Liberal government’s budget plan to lift the economy over the next two years with close to C$12bn in infrastructure funding will be a tall task, one that we would not count on to produce much... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed adopts cavalier attitude to inflation rebound The downward revision to the Fed’s interest rate projections at the March FOMC meeting, despite little change in the economic projections, has prompted plenty of speculation that its “reaction... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 2.8% m/m decline in headline durable goods orders in February was partly due to a slump in the volatile commercial aircraft category. But even allowing for that, the details of the report suggest... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
