US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales was slightly weaker than consensus expectations and was mainly due to a 2.1% m/m decline in auto sales. More importantly, while the 0.1% m/m increase in control... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is private investor demand for housing about to drop away? Housing now looks close to fair value, and the supply of distressed properties for sale has fallen. However, while they may struggle to find bargains, we doubt that private investor demand will dry up... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this a temporary setback for the dollar? Three key developments explain the US dollar’s slide against other major currencies since its peak on 20 th January – higher commodity prices, increased appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound Despite glimmers of a revival in production, the mood among businesses across most sectors and regions has darkened due to shrinking real incomes and weak domestic demand, with the low level of... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Potential growth still held back by productivity slump If sustained (admittedly a big if), the recent surge in labour force growth would mean that the US economy’s potential growth rate is arguably higher than most economists currently believe... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update We need to talk about Q1 GDP growth Thanks to a markedly weaker gain in consumption than we were previously expecting, it now appears that first-quarter GDP growth was no more than 1% annualised. Following on from the 1.4% gain in the... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong US home building to underpin the price of lumber A pick up in US single-family home building should continue to support the price of US lumber this year even if the Canadian dollar gives back some ground against the greenback. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Strength of low-paid hiring may be holding down average wages The recent weakness of wage growth over the past few months is partly explained by a deterioration in the quality of jobs being created, which is also reflected in a surge in low-skilled labour force... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) Despite February’s decline in export volumes, earlier gains mean that exports in Q1 asa whole grew quite strongly, easily outpacing imports. Net exports likely contributedas much as 3 percentage... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing demand on the up The demand for homes is on the rise. With mortgage affordability very favourable, jobs being created at a decent pace and banks loosening credit criteria, it is no surprise that mortgage applications... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Despite a small rise in mortgage interest rates the strong labour market, high consumer confidence and historically favourable mortgage affordability all combined to ensure that mortgage applications... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to shift on neutral interest rate outlook We expect the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at 0.50% next week and maintain a neutral outlook for future policy changes. Despite the strong start to the year, policymakers indicated recently... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Feb.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high of $47.1bn in February, from $45.9bn, means that net exports will be a drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we now think was around 1.5%... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices saw another strong increase in February according to CoreLogic. And with demand set to rise further, but inventory still very constrained, further gains this year can be expected. 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in business intentions unconvincing The Bank of Canada's first-quarter survey on business intentions suggests that the worst might be over for Canada’s struggling economy, but we don’t anticipate any significant improvement this year... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities hit by strong US data and Saudi comments Markets began the second quarter on Friday on a sour note, with sentiment undermined both by a weak Tankan survey in Japan and, rather perversely, by another robust Employment Report and a buoyant ISM... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
