US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Against expectations for a small rise, housing starts contracted for the second consecutive month in January. However, even though they were depressed to some extent by the snowy weather in the... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed unlikely to follow others in adopting negative rates Although a number of other central banks have now adopted negative policy rates, the chances of the Fed following suit are pretty small. Even if US economic conditions deteriorated, we suspect that... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) The 1.3% m/m increase in manufacturing sales volumes in December is encouraging, but the broader picture is still that, despite a 30% depreciation in the Canadian dollar over the past four years... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Market turmoil adds to downside risks to economic growth With the economy reeling from the collapse in oil prices, the rapid deterioration in global financial conditions couldn’t have come at a worse time. The balance of risks to our forecast that GDP... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic price pressures continue to mount Futures markets now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged for all of this year and anticipate a single 25 basis point hike next year. In contrast, we expect the Fed to begin raising rates again in... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) House price inflation slowed to 5.9% in January, from 6.2%, and the existing home-sales-to-listings ratio indicates that the pace of inflation will ease further in the coming months. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The markets may have decided that the economy is heading for a recession, but obviously no-one told US consumers. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus A closer look at financial conditions Financial conditions have tightened in recent months, as the dollar has continued to trend higher, corporate credit spreads have widened and stock markets have suffered a correction. Nevertheless... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of crude oil fell slightly last week, while gasoline stocks continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace. The key driver of the dip in crude stocks was a sharp drop in net imports. A small... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing imbalances continue to worsen Nothing illustrates the regional divergence in Canada’s economy like housing. While house prices continue to surge in the already most over-valued markets in Vancouver and Toronto, Calgary and other... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen sticks to view that interest rates will rise gradually Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress today revealed that, while the FOMC might not be ready to raise interest rates for a second time in March, she still anticipates a “gradual” series of... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales bounce back following TRID disruption After collapsing in November, existing home sales bounced back in December. That volatility was caused by the introduction of TRID disclosure requirements, which pushed some sales from November into... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation expectations – are they really falling? The slump in market-based breakeven inflation rates has raised fears that falling inflation expectations could trigger a deflationary spiral in the US. But breakeven rates are measures of inflation... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Revising, but not renouncing, our view of US Treasuries We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield. Nonetheless, our new forecasts still imply that the yield will climb significantly from its current level of 1.8%, as the Fed... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Negative interest rates unlikely in Canada While negative interest rate policies are being adopted by some major central banks, economic growth and inflation in Canada will be buffered by fiscal policy stimulus and the past depreciation of the... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen will reiterate “wait and see” message In her semi-annual testimony to Congress this week (to the House on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday), Fed Chair Janet Yellen is unlikely to say that a March rate hike is completely off the table... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
