US Economics Weekly Banks lending more freely The rapid expansion in bank loans since the turn of the year is a sure sign that the economic outlook is brighter than the stagnation in first-quarter GDP growth suggested. Loans to businesses are... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Dollar-denominated bond yields to drift up this year The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index has dropped below 300 basis points for the first time in about a year. However, we forecast the spread to rebound as less accommodative US monetary... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's unexpected 28,900 decline in net employment suggests that the economy remained stuck in the slow lane last quarter, hampered by an underperforming export sector and a housing slowdown... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the US stock market ride out a shift in Fed policy? The cost of corporate equity is much lower than the cost of corporate debt in the US. This is very different to the situation that prevailed during the dot com bubble and is a reason to think that the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.14) The rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in April, alongside the recent pick-up in the Fed’s measure of the value of residential mortgage lending, are encouraging signs that mortgage... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) While Canada's external merchandise trade surplus shrunk unexpectedly in March, from a bigger than previously estimated surplus in February, the more discouraging news was the declines in export and... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE taper does not explain Q1 GDP weakness A few commentators have suggested that the weakness in first-quarter GDP, which may even have contracted slightly, could be due to the Fed's decision late last year to begin tapering its monthly asset... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $40.4bn in March, from $41.9bn, was a smaller narrowing than the BEA had assumed in its initial estimate of first-quarter GDP growth. Accordingly, when added... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) House price gains have held steady at 11%-12% y/y for a year now. But the tight supply conditions which have driven these gains are now loosening, pointing to a moderation in price rises before too... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey points to strong growth in business loans The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey illustrates the remarkable divergence between bank loans to businesses, which have increased by nearly 9% over the past year, and bank residential mortgages... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Stress-testing the US economy against a recession in China Even if China endured a financial crisis and a recession, the hit to the US economy would probably be fairly small. China is just not that important to America’s banks, businesses and investors. We... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Regional disparity a dilemma for the Bank of Canada Canada's uneven regional economic performance presents a dilemma for the Bank of Canada. While natural resource-rich provinces flourished last year, those that are reliant on manufacturing struggled... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The above-consensus 288,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April and the corresponding drop in the unemployment rate to a four-and-a-half-year low of 6.3% underline why the markets and the Fed were... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low stocks will put upward pressure on US natural gas prices Extremely low levels of natural gas stocks in the US are likely to put upward pressure on prices over the rest of this year and potentially even into 2015. 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a four-month high of 54.9 in April, from 53.7, illustrates that the factory sector is still getting back to normal after the earlier weather-related... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues with gradual QE taper As expected, the near-stagnation in first-quarter GDP growth wasn't enough to prevent the Fed from tapering its asset purchases by an additional $10bn, to $45bn per month, at the FOMC meeting that... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
