US Housing Market Update Will new disclosure rules drive high-end cash buyers away? Experience from the UK shows that buyers of high-end properties will pay significant sums to protect their privacy. That suggests that new rules for Manhattan and Miami-Dade, which will force buyers... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada surprises market with no rate cut The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its key policy rate at 0.50% today doesn’t mean that further rate cuts are off the table entirely. The Bank sounded far more downbeat about the economic outlook... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to take more cautious view of latest market turmoil The latest slump in commodity prices, the renewed market turmoil and the apparent slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth are all good reasons why the Fed might ultimately decide against raising... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Even with the unseasonably warm weather giving housing starts a boost in the Northeast, across the country as a whole starts dropped by a marginal 2.5% in December. While that is something of a... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Nov.) Although the rebound in manufacturing sales in November was stronger than most expected, it wasn’t enough to offset similar declines in the previous three months. Accordingly, manufacturing activity... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices fell by 0.1% m/m in December, principally thanks to a 4.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices and, with crude oil prices now below $30 a barrel, we can expect even bigger falls in the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Lower energy prices will delay rebound in inflation Our key theme for this year, that the two big deflationary shocks of 2015 - the slump in energy prices and the surge in the dollar - will fade, leaving rising domestic price pressures to generate a... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar likely to rebound before year end The plunge in the Canadian dollar to a thirteen-year low of US$0.69 has forecasters jumping on the bearish bandwagon with increasingly pessimistic forecasts for the year ahead, mainly over fears that... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s retail sales report was disappointing across the board and suggests that fourth-quarter GDP growth was as low as 1.0% annualised. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market really heading for a crash? The S&P 500 has shown signs of stabilising after a terrible start to the year. Many expect this to be a lull in the storm. But while there are at least eight reasons to be fearful of a major... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to cut interest rates next week We expect the Bank of Canada to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% next week, which is much sooner than most investors anticipate. The incoming data suggest that the economy... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) House price inflation rose slightly to a four-year high of 6.2% in December, from 6.1%, but the home-sales-to-listings ratio indicates that this is close to the peak. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why US natural gas prices could rise further The end of unusually warm winter weather in the US helps to explain the surge in natural gas prices since December. But we expect contracting supply, the start of LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How disruptive have the TRID regulations been? The introduction of the TRID disclosure rules in October increased the time a mortgage takes to close by a small amount, which will have delayed some home sales. But the evidence does not support... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will lower oil prices ever become a net positive? The magnitude and duration of the slump in oil prices has far exceeded what we originally expected and the longer it persists, the harder it is to argue that decline will ever be a net positive for... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business hiring intentions warn of full-blown recession The Bank of Canada's fourth-quarter update on business intentions suggests that the economy is slipping back into recession, with shrinking investment soon to be accompanied by a downturn in... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
