US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Spending (Nov.) The monthly data on consumption and investment released this morning do little to change our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be around 2.0% annualised. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) After contracting by 0.5% m/m in September, the economy began the fourth-quarter poorly, with GDP unchanged in October. While non-conventional oil production rose modestly, declines elsewhere indicate... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling US production to support oil prices in 2016 The current weakness in crude oil prices partly reflects still-high production and stocks in the US, despite the collapse in the number of active drilling rigs there. But we expect the supply response... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 15) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 4.6% in November, but M2 growth was still a very healthy 6.2% and, most importantly, the growth rate of bank loans is running at 8.0%. 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) November’s slump in existing home sales was widespread, suggesting that new regulation, or perhaps concern about December’s rate rise, may have played a role. Either way, with housing fundamentals... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to rebound Inflation is currently being held down by the impact of falling commodity prices and the stronger dollar but, as those deflationary forces fade next year, we expect rising domestic price pressures to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Weak industrial demand continues to weigh on US silver trade US imports of semi-manufactured silver remained subdued in September, suggesting that industrial demand is yet to recover. In contrast, investors continued to buy into falling prices, boosting demand... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households unprepared for what comes next We fear that households are utterly unprepared for the normalisation of market interest rates that began with the US Fed’s historic lift-off last week. Canada’s economy has long been overly reliant on... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to expect in 2016 If 2015 was the year when interest rates didn’t rise as rapidly as most originally expected, then 2016 is likely to be the opposite, with a bigger than expected rebound in inflation forcing the Fed to... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Wholesale Sales (Oct.) The increase in annual headline inflation to 1.4% in November, from 1.0%, was largely as expected given the diminishing drag from lower energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation remained close to the 2... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Equities well placed to cope with further Fed tightening The US stock market has reacted positively to the first rate hike by the Fed, and we don’t expect it to be derailed by the onset of further tightening. Admittedly, at around 4%, the cyclically... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Low housing inventory drives market developments A lack of housing inventory continues to drive developments in the market. With homes hard to come by, sales have been constrained and house prices have come under upwards pressure as demand has... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) As expected, housing starts reversed nearly all of last month’s drop, rising by a substantial 10.5% m/m in November. Moreover, building permits recorded their strongest month-on-month gain for five... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The bigger than expected 0.6% m/m decline in industrial production in November was largely due to a weather-related 4.3% m/m drop in utilities output. Manufacturing output was unchanged last month... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) The significant fall in manufacturing sales volumes in October, the third monthly decline in a row, provides more evidence that the economy has lost considerable momentum this quarter, possibly to the... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The continued decline in energy prices is still just about keeping a lid on headline CPI inflation, but base effects will drive it up sharply over the next few months and, more importantly, there are... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
