Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The 7,000 decline in employment in February specifically is not a major concern since the unusually severe winter may have played a role. Nevertheless, the broader picture is that employment has been... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains neutral bias Although the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% today and maintained its neutral bias, we suspect that the emphasis on the recent rebound in inflation in the accompanying statement... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update State & local government spending will soon rebound We’re not very concerned by the recent decline in State and local government spending when States’ own spending plans are consistent with a decent rebound both this year and next. This will compliment... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb. 14) The drop in mortgage applications for home purchase in February, which could be related to the introduction of new mortgage lending rules during the previous month, mean that applications are at rock... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) The first CoreLogic house price reading of 2014 suggests that prices started the year on a strong note. But this figure reflects supply and demand conditions from several months ago. The recent... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Higher natural gas price may boost mining investment The biggest and longest-lasting impact from the recent rise in natural gas prices could be a boost to business investment in mining structures. That could add 0.3 percentage points to annual GDP... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Lower Canadian dollar points to rebound in inflation Although inflation has been uncomfortably low for some time now, the risk of a slide into deflation is still fairly modest. Long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Canadian... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) While the ISM manufacturing index rebounded to 53.2 in February, from 51.3, the extent of the increase was limited because of the ongoing severe winter weather. We expect a further improvement in... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rebalancing still a distant pipe dream The Bank of Canada admitted in January's monetary policy statement that "there have been few signs of the anticipated rebalancing towards exports and business investment." Not much has changed since... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed needs to revise forward guidance soon There is a strong possibility that February's labour market figures, due out this Friday, will only make the Fed's job even harder. There is a chance that the unemployment rate could have hit the 6.5%... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2013) At first glance, the 2.9% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP suggests that the economy is on the right track. Unfortunately, growth was once again dependent on spending by heavily-indebted... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Congress finally gives the economy some breathing room Most of the recent weakness in housing activity is due to the unusually bad weather rather than the lagged effects of last year’s rise in mortgage rates. While higher mortgage rates have clearly taken... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls once again hit by bad weather A third consecutive month of weak payroll growth in February would raise speculation that the Fed will pause the tapering of its asset purchases. But because any weakness this month was probably due... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) The 1.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders was mainly due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. More generally, there is some evidence that the growth rate of... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to maintain neutral stance The Bank of Canada's key policy rate has been on hold at 1.0% for more than three years now. With inflation still uncomfortably low and economic growth still overly-dependent on debt-fuelled housing... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Investment intentions remain muted The 2014 annual investment intentions survey, which points to another very modest gain in business investment this year, will come as a blow to the Bank of Canada. The Bank is still hoping for a... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
