US Commercial Property Update Key calls for US commercial real estate in 2022 The US economy is set to slow this year as elevated inflation and higher interest rates squeeze spending. Nevertheless, at the all-property level, we expect rental growth of around 3% y/y and NOI... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov) The jump in the goods trade surplus to a 13-year high in November is another sign that the flooding in British Columbia had only a small impact on overall economic activity. It confirms that the... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rebound in the trade deficit in November means that net trade is now on track to be a small drag on economic growth in the fourth quarter, rather than a small boost as we had previously... 6th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Material shortages hit housing completions Shortages of materials and labour over the past year have not stopped builders from starting a lot more single-family homes. But they do appear to have prevented them from finishing them. That implies... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Omicron absenteeism a temporary economic threat The Omicron variant is less lethal than previous strains but, even if it doesn’t require the reintroduction of restrictions to mitigate the spread, the huge volume of new cases could still deal a... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell, but this reflected solid demand from refineries. Implied product demand – particularly for gasoline – slumped, suggesting that the public were cautious about travel... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Lessons from 2021 2021 proved a challenging year to forecast commercial property markets. Indeed, we underestimated the speed and size of the bounce back in performance, albeit by less than the consensus. But there are... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update 2022: High inflation to drive US policy tightening We expect inflation to remain stubbornly high in 2022, forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy aggressively even though real economic growth underwhelms. The chances of additional fiscal stimulus... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) After a brief dip due to concerns over the Omicron variant, both the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate have since resumed their upward trends, with the latter rising to a nine-month... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the pace of industrial activity growth remained reasonably solid at the end of last year, but the survey came too early to capture the potentially significant... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth slowing ahead of Omicron hit The chaos caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant came too late to have much effect on December payrolls, which we estimate increased by a healthy 350,000. But the huge numbers of people... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q4 2021) Our stronger national office forecast this quarter mean upgrades to all six major markets. The largest of those uplifts is in Boston, which has seen a sharp rise up the rankings and where we expect... 23rd December 2021 · 15 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions to weigh on first-quarter GDP growth The economy gained momentum at the start of the fourth quarter and we have revised up our forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 5.5% annualised, from 4.0%. Given the rapidly deteriorating... 23rd December 2021 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) The healthy rise in new home sales in November primarily reflected a downward revision to the previous month’s reading. Nevertheless, new sales activity is still elevated compared to its pre-COVID-19... 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The November durable goods and income & spending data are consistent with our estimate that fourth-quarter GDP growth was 6.5% annualised, but point to a slowdown in early 2022. 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The strong rise in GDP in October and preliminary estimate of another solid gain in November imply that fourth quarter GDP growth will be stronger than the Bank of Canada anticipated, and means the... 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
