US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Dec.) Progress in the labour market has been slow, with employment having recovered to pre-COVID levels in just four of the 30 metros. While Las Vegas and Orlando have seen decent job growth in recent... 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The threat to Treasuries from inflation hysteresis We envisage an end to the markedly better performance of TIPS than Treasuries since inflation compensation rebounded from an initial, liquidity-distorted, slump at the start of the pandemic. But this... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) Mortgage rates rose to a two-year high of 3.78% in the last week of January. As yet that has done little to cool home purchase demand, with applications increasing to a one-year high. But a lot of... 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.6 in January, from 58.8, suggests the Omicron virus wave hasn’t had nearly as big an impact on the factory sector as implied by some of the early... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These... 1st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The stronger-than-expected rise in November means that GDP climbed back above its pre-pandemic level, but activity appears to have stagnated in December and November’s gain was likely reversed in... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Hawkish Fed a headwind for commodity prices The US Fed announced at its meeting this week that it will “soon be appropriate” to raise interest rates and hinted that a hike was coming as soon as March. The US dollar strengthened, with the DXY... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Home sales and prices to cool as affordability worsens Mortgage rates are on the rise, and we expect the 30-year rate will increase to 4.0% by end-2022 and 4.5% by end-2023. While that only takes mortgage rates back to where they were in early 2019, house... 28th January 2022 · 17 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fears of Ratemaggedon are overdone Fed Chair Jerome Powell fuelled fears of a Ratemaggedon with a hawkish performance in his press conference. But even with both wage and underlying price inflation running at near 40-year highs, we... 28th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank signals eagerness to begin QT Although the Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged this week, its signal that it intends to start quantitative tightening soon was more hawkish than most were expecting. 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Omicron to drive temporary drop in payrolls We suspect that the surge in absenteeism linked to the Omicron variant caused non-farm payrolls to fall by 200,000 in January. But with new virus cases now falling sharply, that hit is likely to be... 27th January 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4), Durable Goods (Dec.) The acceleration in GDP growth to 6.9% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.3% in the third, mainly reflects a record surge in inventories, which will be partly reversed in the first quarter of... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) Market sentiment picked up in Q4, driven by widespread improvements in conditions across sectors. Respondents are also becoming more upbeat about the next 12 months, with forecasts for rents and... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The surge in oil demand included the first signs of a recovery in transport-related gasoline demand. Although, we doubt demand will remain this buoyant for too long as economic growth is set to slow. 26th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank stands pat but rate hike coming in March The Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged today but judges that the conditions to start raising interest rates have now been met, suggesting that it will hike its policy rate at the next meeting in... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) New home sales had a strong end to the year, as the record low number of existing homes on the market drove the sale of homes which were still under construction. That lack of existing supply will... 26th January 2022 · 2 mins read
