Canada Economics Update What if oil prices remain higher than we expect? Higher oil prices would not provide as large a boost to the Canadian economy as in the past but, at a time when GDP is already set to rise above potential and inflation is well above target, they... 9th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil and product stocks fell last week, reflecting robust US demand. However, we think growth in product demand will slow over the course of this year in tandem with slower growth in the US... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price and rental growth to ease in 2022 House prices and rents both boomed in 2021, but are set for a quieter 2022. Mortgage rates are now rising and we expect the 30-year rate will end the year at around 4%. Combined with the rise in house... 8th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Dec) Goods trade moved into a modest deficit in December but, with oil prices rising sharply since then, it should return to surplus in January. 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The solid gains in both exports and imports in December are a signal that global supply chain problems are easing, although the further widening in the trade deficit suggests that net trade will be a... 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shortages appear to be stabilising As it turns out, employment gains were much stronger than previously thought over the final few months of last year and the Omicron wave did little to slow the pace of growth in January. With the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Omicron disruption already in the rear-view mirror The data releases this week suggest that the Omicron wave was more disruptive than we anticipated, but there are already positive signs that the economy will strongly rebound this month. 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 467,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January is even stronger than it looks, as it came despite the spike in absenteeism driven by the Omicron virus wave and was accompanied by significant upward... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The Omicron outbreak took a larger toll on the labour market than anticipated in January but, as many of the coronavirus restrictions have already been lifted, employment will bounce back this month. 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling oil prices to weigh on Houston office demand We think that elevated oil prices will help office-based employment in Houston to recover further in the coming months, but the shift to remote working will limit the associated boost to office demand... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Household formation stalls as costs mount After seeing strong gains over most of 2021, household formation stalled in the final quarter. A lack of homes for sale and rent, and the soaring cost of both tenures, is constraining household... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada could sell assets sooner than most One challenge for central banks as they consider reducing the size of their balances sheets is that, if they sell assets bought during the pandemic, they will likely face a financial loss. This is... 3rd February 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update What explains the ongoing weakness of labour supply? Retirements still explain around half of the shortfall in labour force participation since the pandemic. While the rest of the decline reflects a broad mix of factors, the longer those workers remain... 2nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Product demand remains very strong for the time of the year and, if gasoline demand mounts a recovery once COVID-19 cases moderate, it could get even stronger. Although, we expect that slowing... 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed has better tools than a 50bp rate hike The markets are right to be sceptical of claims that the Fed could begin its tightening cycle with a “shock-and-awe” 50bp interest rate hike next month. At a time when the yield curve is already... 2nd February 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Dec.) Progress in the labour market has been slow, with employment having recovered to pre-COVID levels in just four of the 30 metros. While Las Vegas and Orlando have seen decent job growth in recent... 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
