US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.6 in February, from 57.6, is another sign that demand remains strong, with the small rise in supplier delivery times and modest decline in the prices paid... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US economy insulated from Ukraine war The war in Ukraine will prevent US inflation from falling as much as it otherwise would have in the coming months, but it will have little impact on the real economy, so we doubt it will stop the Fed. 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP rose by more than expected in the fourth quarter and the preliminary estimate suggests that, despite the Omicron outbreak, GDP rose further in January. This continued strength supports our view... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Are housing valuations reaching dangerous highs? House price-to-earnings ratios are approaching the peak hit just before the global financial crisis, and another year of strong house price growth would send them above that level. But while mortgage... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Worst may be over for goods shortages Goods supply shortages are now easing. Like the recent stabilisation in labour market slack, that improvement has, at least partly, been driven by a slowdown in demand, so it isn’t a sign that... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising alternative asset yields stretch property valuations There was little change to property valuations in Q4, with two major exceptions. Those were the industrial sector, which saw another decline in its valuation score, and a handful of Southern apartment... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Waller ramps up the hawkishness In his speech late last night, Christopher Waller became the first Fed Governor to throw his weight behind St Louis Fed President James Bullard’s call for 100bp of rate hikes by the middle of the year... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Terms of trade most favourable on record For Canada, the main impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis so far has been to push up the terms of trade to the most favourable on record. That could lead to the Bank of Canada becoming more hawkish... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Jan.) The real economy appears to be in good health, suggesting that the Fed will push on with planned rate hikes starting in March, although the Ukraine conflict makes a 50bp hike less likely. 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Signs of life in NYC; Greater LA industrial set to boom This is our first US Commercial Property Metros Chart Book, which forms part of a set of publications that extends our existing analysis to a wider set of metros. As well as greater coverage of office... 24th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose by more than the consensus expected last week, but this was never going to halt the ongoing surge in oil prices. With all eyes now on the potential fallout from a Russian invasion... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) After two strong months new home sales edged back in January and may dip further early in the year as the surge in borrowers who sought to buy prior to further interest rate rises washes through. But... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview A strong month for payrolls as Omicron fades Reflecting the stronger trend in employment growth apparent in the revised payroll data and the collapse in Omicron cases in February, we expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 600,000 this month. 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to hike rates and start QT We expect the Bank of Canada to kick off its tightening cycle next week with a 25bp rate hike and an announcement that it will begin quantitative tightening. Amid signs of broadening inflationary... 23rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update State & local spending won’t replace federal stimulus The strong finances of state & local governments suggest that they will continue to increase spending at a rapid pace this year. But that won’t come close to matching the huge economic boost from the... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Inflationary pressures broadening The evidence of broadening inflationary pressures and the further rise in oil prices suggest that the balance of risks to our inflation forecast lies to the upside. The January consumer price data... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
