Canada Economics Weekly Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan Although the economy likely grew strongly in the first quarter, beneath the surface we aren’t convinced that the economy is still struggling to adjust to lower energy prices, despite the weaker... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Headwinds restraining GDP growth will fade in H2 Some of the headwinds that restricted first-quarter GDP growth to a paltry 0.5% annualised will fade in the second half of this year. But barring a miracle second-quarter rebound, it appears that GDP... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Modest slowdown in pace of payroll gains not worrisome Our econometric model points to a more modest 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 5.0%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.3% m/m gain in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The very modest 0.5% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, which represents a significant slowdown on the already moderate 1.4% gain in the final quarter of last year, was due to a number of headwinds... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed less worried by global risks; open to June rate hike As universally expected, the FOMC kept the fed funds target range unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.50% today, but left the door open to a second 25 basis point rate hike in June. With core inflation... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose again last week despite a slump in net-imports and another small decline in US oil production. 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in net external debt a long-term negative for dollar Although the current account deficit remains well below the peak reached in 2006, net external debt has soared to more than 40% of GDP, up from only 10% a decade ago. The external debt burden is still... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb) The annual rate of house price growth held firm in February. But with conditions in place for housing demand to increase further this year, and inventory levels set to stay low, we expect the rate of... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth likely to be dismal Although incoming data indicate that first-quarter GDP grew by as much as 2.8% annualised, we doubt this marks the beginning of an upturn in economic growth prospects. Economic growth in that quarter... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) The weakness in non-defence durable goods orders and the dip in consumer confidence do not chang eour view that, after a disappointing first quarter, GDP growth will rebound in the second, helped by a... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) New home sales fell in March – a weaker performance than we had expected. But with the economic backdrop still supporting housing demand, and inventory levels for new homes still growing, we still... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to second-quarter rebound The recent activity data indicate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.8% annualised. However, we expect this to prove only a temporary setback rather than the start of a more serious... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally isn’t a major threat to GDP growth Canada’s economy certainly has its growth challenges ahead, but the recent rally in the Canadian dollar isn’t a major threat to the economic growth outlook, partly because it has been accompanied by a... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown in GDP growth won’t be sustained According to our calculations, economic growth slowed to only 0.8% annualised in the first quarter. (Data due on Thursday). That slowdown doesn’t worry us, however, even though economic growth has... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The rise in the core inflation rate in March, to 2.1% from 1.9%, was stronger than expected but appears mainly due to the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. As the weakness in the economy takes... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers ask the IMF to come to their rescue A number of frontier markets have turned to the IMF for financial support over the past few months in order to counter strains in their balance of payments. Angola has formally opened negotiations... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
