US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2021) The NCREIF index saw its strongest ever quarterly price appreciation in Q4, with values up by 5.1% q/q, driving a quarterly return of 6.2%. That took annual returns to 17.7%, led by industrial, where... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Tech sector valuations may have even further to fall Even though the valuations of technology stocks have, in general, already fallen sharply in recent weeks, we suspect they may decline further over the next couple of years. This is one reason why we... 25th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth could prompt faster policy tightening The Bank of Canada’s fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed firms’ wage expectations at a record high, which suggests that wage growth could accelerate to far above the pre-pandemic norm this... 25th January 2022 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov.) Case-Shiller reported annual house price growth falling for the third consecutive month in November. And with rising mortgage rates set to stretch affordability to its worst since 2008, we expect... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Higher interest rates will leave economy vulnerable Despite a weak start to the year, we expect GDP to rise by 3.6% in 2022 due to broad-based gains in consumption, business investment and net trade. Against that backdrop, the Bank of Canada is set to... 24th January 2022 · 19 mins read
US Chart Pack Omicron impact short-lived The surge in Omicron infections means more people were self-isolating in early-January than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic, although the impact that will have on employment and output... 24th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening & the outlook for US corporate bonds Our baseline forecast envisages that US corporate bond spreads rise only slightly as the Fed raises interest rates over the next couple of years. But we think the risks to this forecast are skewed to... 21st January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed guidance could revive the rally in the US dollar The trade-weighted US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher, reversing some of its recent decline. But the dollar strength has mostly been against G10 currencies; despite the fall in US... 21st January 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Will they, won’t they? Whether the Bank of Canada raises interest rates next week or not, the more important question now is how high will rates eventually rise? Our view is that current market pricing is too aggressive. 21st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We doubt US equities will underperform across the board We forecast that equities in other developed markets (DMs) will outperform US equities over the next couple of years. By contrast, we expect equities in many emerging markets (EMs) to underperform... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The rise in retail sales in November was not as strong as it looks, and the preliminary estimate suggests that sales fell sharply in December amid the Omicron wave. They are likely to fall further... 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron reaches plateau, leaving Fed free to hike We expect the Fed to deliver some heavy hints at next week’s FOMC that it is planning an interest rate hike in March. With the Omicron wave now past its peak nationally, there is little to hold the... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Despite a 6% m/m fall in existing home sales in December, 2021 marked an impressive year for existing home sales, with sales 11% higher compared to 2020. But looking ahead, a backdrop of rising... 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to remain elevated as GDP growth slows We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core... 20th January 2022 · 22 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Surging incentives reveal weakness in the office market Office incentives packages rose to unprecedented levels in 2021, which supports our view that market conditions are weaker than asking rents suggest. Given our expectation that vacancy will remain... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US Housing Market Calls for 2022 A rise in mortgage rates to 4.0% by end-2022, coupled with the 25% rise in house prices seen since mid-2020, will boost mortgage payments as a share of earnings to their highest since mid-2008. That... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
