Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell sharply last week for the fourth week in a row. That was despite demand for oil products dropping back in line with the seasonal average. Early indicators suggest... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales continued to climb higher in November, leaving sales just short of their peak last year. But we expect a tight inventory and stretched affordability as mortgage rates rise to weigh... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We doubt that 2022-23 will be as rewarding as 2021 2021 is on course to be a relatively good year for most investors. Admittedly, it has not been entirely without its casualties. Equities in China and much of Latin America, for example, have struggled... 21st December 2021 · 11 mins read
US Chart Pack Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to... 21st December 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Restrictions may not derail Bank’s tightening plans The closure of many high-contact services in Quebec yesterday is likely to soon be matched by tighter coronavirus restrictions elsewhere. That said, if other provinces also allow stores and... 21st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales rose strongly in October and the preliminary estimate points to another solid gain in November. That is likely to mark the peak for the next few months, however, as the rapidly... 21st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting our forecasts in light of the Fed After taking on board the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish pivot, we now forecast that the central bank will raise its policy rate much more quickly than we had previously anticipated. This Update... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q4 2021) Apartment markets in major coastal cities underperformed the national average in 2021, as they were more heavily impacted by lockdowns and the move of some households to cheaper, sunbelt cities. But... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong Q4 but growing downside risks to Q1 The activity data released this week suggest that the economy was in a strong position in the fourth quarter and the price data imply that inflationary pressures are broadening. The surge in... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our forecast for Treasuries We are revising down our end-2022 and end-2023 forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 25bp each, to 2.00% and 2.25%, respectively. This compares to its current level of ~1.4%. 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets wrong to doubt the Fed Market pricing suggests investors remain unconvinced that the now-hawkish Fed will hike interest rates as high as officials are projecting, either because inflation will drop back more quickly or... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The solid 0.7% increase in manufacturing output last month suggests that shortages are gradually easing. With demand still strong, the latest surveys are still consistent with manufacturing output... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family housing starts rebounded in November, following a weak four months. While strong new home demand, limited inventory and surging house prices will incentivise builders to increase... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Oil risk premium to fall in 2022, but risks abound Our estimates show a fall in the risk premium in the oil price since the emergence of the Omicron variant, as concerns over demand resurfaced. But the risk premium is still large, which adds weight to... 16th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks slumped last week as domestic demand strengthened and exports jumped. The decline in commercial stocks also came as strategic petroleum reserves fell. In the final weeks of... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update US to outperform in 2022 before rate rises curb returns The rapid bounce-back in the US economy along with still-loose monetary policy will drive continued strong performance in real estate in 2022, when we expect returns to exceed 12%. That would see the... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
