US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) With prices rising sharply last month, the muted 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales values suggests that consumption was little changed in real terms. That won’t stop the Fed from accelerating the pace of... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices rose at a more modest pace in November, but the increase in the Bank’s preferred measure of core inflation suggests that price pressures are broadening. Note: Central Bank Drop-In –... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s updated framework maintains the status quo The Bank of Canada’s updated policy framework will not have a material effect on policy over the next couple of years, but it does support our forecast that inflation will be slightly higher on... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US REITs may outperform ordinary US equities The recent resilience of US real estate investment trusts (REITs) seems to reflect both easing concerns about the Omicron variant and a net decline in long-dated Treasury yields. Although we expect... 13th December 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov.) Commercial real estate debt recorded its largest gain in November since the onset of the pandemic. And with investment volumes on track for a record-breaking year, we expect lending activity to remain... 13th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Pivotal week coming up for the Fed Following Chair Jerome Powell’s markedly more hawkish tone at his recent congressional testimony, markets are braced for the Fed to pivot hard at next week’s FOMC meeting 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank growing more concerned about cost pressures The Bank of Canada’s increased concerns about wage and cost pressures suggest it will start to tighten policy in April, especially if the government loosens fiscal policy in next week’s fall fiscal... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We think 10-year US inflation compensation will rise again Even though headline US CPI inflation may now have peaked, we still think long-term inflation compensation could rise a little over the next couple of years. 10th December 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook All-property returns set for double digits in 2022 The major change to our forecasts this quarter is that we now see strong demand for assets persisting well into 2022 and pushing yields down further. That is true in all sectors, with retail and... 10th December 2021 · 23 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices rose by 0.8% m/m in November, taking the annual CPI inflation rate up to a near 40-year high of 6.8% but, with energy prices falling sharply in recent weeks, last month probably marked... 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is US households’ voracious appetite for equities sated? US households and nonprofit organizations (NPO) lost their appetite for equities last quarter. If they don’t get it back, it may not augur well for the stock market. 10th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The Fed and the Treasury yield curve We now expect the Treasury yield curve to flatten further over the next couple of years but think that, in contrast with recent developments, this will happen alongside rising long-term yields. 9th December 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will major coastal city rents continue to get cheaper? The pandemic turbo-charged a move away from major coastal cities, and that drop in demand led to a sharp fall in their rents relative to the national average. But with those moves now made and cities... 9th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market slack falling to generational lows The rebound in the job openings rate close to a record high in October means that the number of unemployed Americans per job opening fell to its lowest level since the early 1950s. That underlines the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks remained range-bound, but there were sizeable additions to stocks of petroleum products. That said, implied product demand remains solid, despite rising new COVID-19 infections... 8th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank keeps policy rate guidance unchanged The Bank of Canada’s unchanged policy rate guidance implies it could wait until the third quarter before raising rates but, given wage growth is now picking up sharply, we expect it to pull the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
