Asia Economics Weekly Policy rates to remain low for longer than consensus expects The region’s rate cutting cycle has come to an end, but with inflation set to remain fairly subdued, interest rates are likely to remain low for some time yet. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Most of Emerging Asia’s manufacturing PMIs slipped in May, but we doubt this marks the start of a significant downturn in Asian manufacturing. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities continue strong run Asian equity markets have outperformed other EM markets over the past month, with bourses in Korea, India, Pakistan and Indonesia all reaching record highs in May. We are revising our equity forecasts... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low food inflation keeps EM inflation near eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation remained close to an eight-year low in April, largely reflecting a slump in food inflation in major economies such as China and Brazil. While this weakness will soon reverse in... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit bubbles – where do the risks lie? We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s current credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth in a number of countries will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on prolonged hold With the economy gaining momentum and price pressure benign, it was no surprise that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today. Looking ahead, we expect the BoT to keep... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia S&P upgrade long overdue The decision on Friday by the rating agency, S&P, to upgrade Indonesia to investment grade rating was long overdue. At under 30% of GDP, Indonesia has one of the lowest levels of government debt in... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trend still towards looser monetary policy The overall trend in EMs has remained towards looser monetary policy in recent months, with more EM central banks cutting interest rates than hiking them. But significant divergences exist at a... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about another slowdown in China? Economic growth in Emerging Asia picked up again in the first quarter of the year, thanks largely to stronger export demand. The slowdown that now appears to be underway in China is unlikely to derail... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) Figures released today show that Malaysia’s economy gained strong momentum in Q1. Robust global demand, loose monetary policy and a recovery in energy prices should continue to support growth in... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets fall, but economic fallout should be limited Political developments in the US and Brazil have led to sizeable falls in EM currencies and equities today but the economic implications for EMs are likely to be limited. Even in Brazil itself, it’s... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Figures released today show Thailand’s economy started 2017 on a solid note. We expect growth to pick up a little further in the coming quarters, helped by robust external demand, supportive fiscal... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Moon defuse Korea’s demographic “time bomb”? One of the biggest challenges facing South Korea’s newly elected president, Moon Jae-in, is the country’s dreadful demographic outlook. Although there are steps the new government could take to boost... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Malaysia to stay on hold for the rest of the year Despite the recent spike in inflation, it was no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. Looking ahead, we expect BNM to keep interest rates steady... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, pause unlikely to last The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold, but a combination of rapid credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency suggests further tightening is only a matter of... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP “minus US” – is it worth the bother? Even without the US, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could still provide a decent boost to the four countries from Emerging Asia included in the deal. The risk is that without the carrot of access... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
