Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) The Philippines economy picked up strongly last quarter, largely owing to a rebound in government spending. We expect growth to remain strong in 2015, supported by recent improvements to the business... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's central bank takes a more neutral stance The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 3.5% today and suggested there is now far less certainty its next move will be a hike. We are not expecting any changes in 2015 or 2016. 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will the surge in the EMBI+ spread be reversed? The “stripped” spread over US Treasuries of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has risen by a further 40bp over the past month to around 4.2%, well above... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s rate pause to continue through 2015 The Malaysian central bank (BNM) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today, and is unlikely to make any changes during the rest of this year. There are some concerns about the pace of... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Falling inflation not enough to trigger Thai rate cut The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 2.0% today despite the recent drop in inflation. While dissent within the monetary policy committee has raised the odds of a rate cut, we... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jokowi’s first 100 days: a promising start Indonesia’s new president, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) has made an encouraging start to hispresidency. But tougher challenges lie ahead, while a corruption scandal is raising questions about... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore moves early to counter deflation concerns In an unscheduled decision, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today loosened monetary policy by reducing the slope of its target band for the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). The change... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Will Governor Rajan follow up on early rate cut? Following the RBI’s decision to cut interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier this month, a small majority of forecasters expect rates to be kept on hold at the scheduled policy meeting next... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergence in EM inflation to widen further in 2015 Inflation has diverged significantly across the emerging world over the past few months. While some economies have slipped into deflation, in a number of countries consumer prices are rising at a... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's rate cut likely to be the last for some time The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 100bp to 8.5%, the lowest since 2005, over the weekend. Although inflation and money supply growth have both slowed sharply in recent months, we... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Does Singapore’s currency regime still suit its needs? The decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abandon its exchange rate ceiling has created questions about the sustainability of other currency regimes. We think there is little chance of the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Today's advance estimate suggests Korea's economy ended 2014 on a soft note, with growth slowing to a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% q/q in Q4 from 0.9% the quarter before. However, growth should rebound in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update ECB QE and what it means for emerging markets The programme of asset purchases announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier today was larger than had been expected only a few days ago, but fears that it could fuel destabilising inflows to... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further rate cuts are on the way The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shocked markets earlier this month by cutting its main policy rates at an unscheduled meeting. The accompanying statement also paved the way for further policy... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
