Emerging Markets Economics Update The “Taper Tantrum” one year on A year on from the start of the so-called “taper tantrum”, in which concerns about the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Fed sent shock waves through EM financial markets, the vulnerabilities... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s economic prospects hinge on political situation Prolonged political uncertainty in Thailand has clearly taken a heavy toll on the economy, which contracted in the first quarter of the year. Unless a resolution to the political crisis is found soon... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is a credit bubble building in the Philippines? The surge in credit that has been going on across much of Emerging Asia since the global financial crisis has been getting some well-deserved media attention recently. But while we have been flagging... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong BJP mandate could be a game-changer for India For the first time in 30 years, it appears that a national government in India will be free from the chains of coalition politics, giving it a strong platform from which to launch much-needed economic... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stuck in the slow lane Having shown signs of picking up towards the end of last year, growth across the emerging world seems to have slowed once again in recent months. The latest slowdown has been due to several factors... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s strong GDP growth raises scope for rate hikes Malaysia’s growth picked up strongly in the first quarter of 2014, reinforcing our view that the central bank (BNM) is likely to begin raising its policy rate at its next meeting in July. Although... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s wholesale inflation eases, but RBI unlikely to budge India’s wholesale price inflation dipped unexpectedly last month, but this is unlikely to persuade the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to abandon its hawkish stance on monetary policy any time soon. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will India really deliver equity-friendly reforms? The prospect of a new government delivering economic reform in India has provided a substantial boost to the country’s stock market. Although we are also optimistic that a new government will make... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tight fiscal policy another reason to expect Australian slowdown Australia's budget included a range of measures to rein in the fiscal deficit. The shift to tighter fiscal policy comes at a time when the economy is growing below trend and is facing a sharp fall in... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s next government forced to build on sluggish economy As voting in India’s general election draws to a close today, another batch of disappointing data has underlined the economic challenges that will face the new government. 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is the Korean won overvalued? Fears that a strong won will undermine Korea’s export competitiveness look overdone. If anything, the won looks slightly undervalued, while prospects for the country’s exporters are better than they... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are expectations too high for Modi’s India? All eyes will be on India next week as its much-talked-about election comes to an end. Opinion polls have consistently suggested that the opposition BJP party, which has nominated Narendra Modi as its... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Dollar-denominated bond yields to drift up this year The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index has dropped below 300 basis points for the first time in about a year. However, we forecast the spread to rebound as less accommodative US monetary... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates in Korea to remain on hold until 2015 With the economic recovery gaining momentum, but inflationary pressures still low, the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold came as no surprise. We think interest rates will... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weakness of EM exports not just a result of China distortions Emerging market (EM) exports continued to fall in March. Admittedly, this can in part be explained by distortions in the Chinese data, which appear to have persisted in April too. However, the bigger... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on the verge of tightening monetary policy Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) opted to keep its policy rate at 3.0% today, but the case for monetary tightening is building, and we think BNM could hike rates as early as its next meeting in July. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
