Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth picks up, but reasons for caution Emerging Market export growth strengthened a little in May and may have accelerated further last month. Even so, the latest country-level trade figures have fallen short of expectations, and suggest... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's budget hawkish, but lacking detail on reforms India’s new government took a more hawkish line than expected in its budget today, committing to a further sizeable reduction in the budget deficit that will weigh on growth. Some will be disappointed... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes in the pipeline for Malaysia Amid rising concerns over the stability of the financial sector, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today hiked its policy rate for the first time in three years. With the economy in good shape, we see... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New president should not expect any favours from Bank Indonesia Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates on hold today never really looked in much doubt. Looking ahead, although the central bank may have some scope to cut interest rates over the next... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea in no rush to hike interest rates Interest rates in Korea were left on hold today, and with inflation set to stay subdued we expect monetary policy to remain unchanged for the rest of the year. 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What will a Jokowi presidency mean for Indonesia? Joko Widodo looks to have won today’s presidential election in Indonesia, and hopes are high that he will make a fresh start on economic reform. However, the constraints of coalition politics, as well... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand is showing signs of post-crisis recovery Thailand's economy appears to be on the road to recovery following the military coup on 22 nd May. But challenges remain and we expect the economy to grow at less than its trend rate for a while yet. 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A look ahead to Asia’s prospects for 2016 The recovery in demand for Emerging Asia’s exports is unlikely to have run its course by 2016. However, with the Fed’s tightening cycle likely to be gathering pace, credit growth cooling and... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Indonesia’s election? Indonesia’s presidential election on Wednesday could have a crucial bearing on the future of the country’s economy. Financial markets would favour a victory for Joko Widodo, the current mayor of... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further rebound in EM manufacturing The latest batch of emerging market (EM) PMIs suggests that the rebound in EM manufacturing gatheredpace in June. The best performers are still in Asia and Central Europe, as well as Mexico, but there... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weaker credit growth to weigh on region Most countries in Emerging Asia should record reasonable growth over the next couple of years, helped by a combination of supportive monetary policy and a pick-up in demand from advanced economies... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis fears fade but rebound remains elusive Fears of an EM-wide crisis have receded and the outlook for smaller EM manufacturers is brightening. But structural problems will continue to hold back the largest emerging economies even if, as seems... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks remain despite recent calm Financial markets in the emerging world have rallied in the past quarter as fears about the impact of Fed tapering and a hard landing in China have eased. But while the latest Capital Economics Risk... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update June PMIs point to sluggish recovery The June PMIs for Emerging Asia continue to point towards a slow and uneven recovery. Softening new orders are a reminder that a strong rebound is unlikely to materialise any time soon. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rate hike still a long way off The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate at 2.5% today, and again made it clear that there will not be any changes in the near term. In fact, with mining investment set to fall and the... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Growth in the BRICs remains disappointing Our Tracker suggests that GDP in the emerging world, in aggregate, has expanded by around 4.5% y/y in recent months which is in line with Q1’s outturn. Some of the more open EM economies have gathered... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
