Emerging Markets Economics Update How worried should we be about the strong dollar? Fears over the outlook for emerging markets have resurfaced over the past few days, with the latest concerns focusing on the impact that a strong dollar will have on EM balance sheets. In our view... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia leaves rates on hold, but further loosening likely soon Having surprised markets last month with a rate cut, Bank Indonesia (BI) left its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%. Although we expect to see further rate cuts this year, the pace of easing is... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Wholesale price inflation dropped further into negative territory in February to its lowest rate since the series began in 2005. This was in part due to falling oil prices, but low core inflation... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah weakness is unlikely to revive Indonesia’s economy The weakness of the Indonesian rupiah is unlikely to kick-start a recovery in the country’s non-commodity export sector. For one thing, it has not left Indonesian exporters looking any more... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) Consumer price inflation picked up in February, having already increased sharply since late 2014. But the rebound has been driven entirely by food prices. Core inflation remains low and flat. The... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Credit growth needs to slow further We have been warning for some time that parts of Asia are experiencing an unsustainable credit binge, and that credit growth will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided. Encouragingly, credit growth... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export downturn deepens The value of EM exports fell at the sharpest rate in more than five years in January. The timing of Chinese New Year was partly to blame, and an improvement is almost guaranteed in February, given the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's rate cut likely marks end of cutting cycle The Bank of Korea (BoK) reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% today, adding to a growing list of central banks that have cut rates this year. But Korea's high household debt levels... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Fragile EM currencies set for further weakness The fall in emerging market currencies since the beginning of this year has picked up pace this month. Two main forces appear to have been at work. First, the depreciation of the euro has led the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's rate cut likely to be a one-off The Bank of Thailand (BoT) joined the global shift toward monetary loosening today, cutting its policy rate by 25bp to 1.75%. Looking ahead, we think the BoT will keep rates on hold in the coming... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing the fallout from the EM currency slump Most EM currencies have weakened substantially against the US dollar this year. For a few EMs with large dollar debts, such as Turkey, this could lead to financial strains. And the impact of currency... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Current Account (Q4) India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q4 and remains far smaller than in 2013 when the rupee plunged to record lows against the US dollar. With this improvement set to be maintained, there is... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What should we look at if we don’t trust the GDP data? The recent revisions to historic GDP data have been the source of much confusion, not least within the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In this Update, we look at four indicators that the RBI appears to... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Can the RBI meet its new inflation targets? Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for February should show that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains on course to meet its target for the start of 2016, which has now been formalised under... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a property price collapse mean for Taiwan? Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission caused a stir recently when it warned of the rising risk of a property price crash. Although the economy is unlikely to escape unscathed if property prices... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
