Emerging Markets Economics Focus Shifting sands: why the outlook for the BRICs is starting to diverge The prospects for the four largest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are starting to diverge. The outlook for India is improving and, despite a recent run of poor data, we think... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation of Thailand’s credit bubble has further to run Although credit growth in Thailand has cooled over the past few years, the process of deflating the country’s credit bubble is still far from over. Given this, the Bank of Thailand’s decision earlier... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Is Mr Modi delivering on promises of reform? It has been nearly a year since Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP swept to victory in India's general election amid promises of wide-ranging reform to revamp the struggling economy. In this... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors regain their appetite for EM assets In February, there was a net flow into global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging markets for the month since September. In particular, funds dedicated to investing in equities in Emerging... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) Vietnam’s economy grew strongly in the first quarter of the year, thanks mainly to robust growth in the manufacturing sector. We are raising our growth forecast for this year to reflect the improving... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stuck at post-crisis low Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM GDP growth has remained stuck at just over 4.0% y/y in recent months – a low not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. However, the aggregate figure... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currency strength one reason Asian rates will stay low, for now Currency strength in Emerging Asia has been a factor in the region's recent wave of policy loosening. It appears to be undermining export competitiveness and has helped push inflation down further... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports take a turn for the worse Emerging Asia’s exports have taken a turn for the worse in recent months. Leaving out China, the region’s merchandise exports, measured in US dollar terms, contracted at the sharpest annual rate in... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Policymakers aiming to support cyclical rebound The past month has shown that India's authorities are still leaning towards policy loosening to support a cyclical rebound in economic growth, despite the strength of the revised GDP data. For a start... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan is unlikely to join Asia's rate-cutting cycle Despite slowing growth, a bout of deflation and a housing market that has recently taken a turn for the worse, Taiwan is unlikely to join the Asian rate-cutting cycle at its upcoming meeting. 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for February show a 4.6% m/m fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. However, data for the first two months of the year suggest it is too soon to factor... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency weakness concentrated in low-saving EMs The hardest hit EM currencies over the course of this year have been those of the economies with low domestic savings rates. In the absence of reforms to address this frailty, the currencies of low... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Fed policy unlikely to have major impact on rupee The Indian rupee has taken Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in its stride, with the currency dropping only fractionally against the US dollar since then. Looking ahead, the economy is in much better shape to... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Post-FOMC relief proves short-lived The rally in EM currencies following the conclusion of yesterday’s FOMC meeting has proved to be short-lived, with markets seemingly focussing on the fact that the Fed has paved the way for a June... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia does not need to follow the Fed's lead The first rate hike in the US looks to be only a matter of months away. But local factors, not the actions of the US Federal Reserve, will determine the next moves by Asia's central banks. 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows set to remain strong Concerns about destabilising capital flows to emerging markets such as India have again come to the fore, but one factor that often gets overlooked is the role of overseas remittances. Remittance... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
