India Economics Update Is rising food inflation a concern? Inflation is likely to have accelerated in March, in large part due to rising food prices caused by recent unseasonable rains. But weekly data suggest that the majority of the inflation spike may have... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rising financial risks to deter aggressive rate cuts in Korea The Bank of Korea (BoK) held its policy rate at 1.75% today, following a rate cut last month. The slow pace of recovery has raised speculation of further monetary policy loosening, but we think... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Indonesia Tin Exports (Mar. 15) Indonesia’s tin exports rose strongly in March, but we expect lower volumes in coming months owing to a self-imposed export quota. This will be one factor supporting our forecast that tin prices will... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on EM dollar debts The recent strength of the dollar has thrust EM dollar debts into the spotlight, but data on the subject tend to be misunderstood. In this Update, we answer three questions that we have been asked by... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Door for further rate cuts still open Governor Rajan opted not to follow up on March’s rate cut in today’s policy review, with the repo and the reverse repo rates kept on hold at 7.50% and 6.50% respectively. But further rate cuts are... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will Russia’s sovereign credit spread keep falling? Russia’s bond market continued to fare well in March. This may have reflected a growing sense that the risk of a financial crisis in the country has passed in the wake of emergency rate hikes late... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to further weakness The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world slowed further last month, driven mainly by weakness in some of the larger EM economies. By contrast, manufacturers in... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI won’t need to follow the Fed The first rate hike in the US is edging closer, but India’s dramatically improved external position and the fact that the rupee has strengthened in recent months suggest that the Reserve Bank of India... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly AIIB – what is all the fuss about? Poor infrastructure is likely to remain a key constraint on economic development across large parts of Emerging Asia over the next decade. For all the headlines, the Asian Infrastructure Investment... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in March, but the bigger picture is that conditions are still subdued by past standards. Looking ahead, with progress on creating a favourable business environment... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook In the footsteps of the Fed? The recent run of poor data from around the emerging world is likely to set the tone for the rest of this year. Brazil’s struggles look set to continue, Russia is likely to slip deeper into recession... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The PMIs for Emerging Asia fell back in March, underlining the fragility of the region's manufacturing recovery. Indeed, in the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currencies and equity markets drop back Most equity markets and currencies in Emerging Asia fell last month, although in the majority of cases the declines were relatively small. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Why aren’t banks lending more? Recent cuts to policy interest rates should eventually help to boost bank lending in India, the weakness of which has been a significant cause of the economic slowdown over the past few years. But... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BRICs drive pick-up in EM inflation A pick-up in inflation in all four of BRIC economies pushed aggregate EM inflation to an eight-month high last month. However, the bigger picture remains that in most EMs inflation is both low and... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is a weak rupiah a threat to Indonesia? Policymakers in Indonesia should welcome, rather than fear, a weaker rupiah. Not only is foreign currency debt relatively low, but there is little sign that a fall in the currency is pushing up... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
