Asia Economics Weekly Will further rate cuts make a difference in Indonesia? Given the current backdrop of weak growth, low inflation and a stable currency, Bank Indonesia is likely to cut its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo rate, at its upcoming meeting. But more... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) Malaysia’s economy slowed further in the second quarter of 2016. With the prices of its main commodity exports set to remain low and the room for policy stimulus limited, a strong rebound is not on... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to stay low in the Philippines With the economy in good shape and inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank inthe Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking ahead... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A pause, not a reversal, in recovery of EM exports The slightly faster decline in EM exports recorded in June compared to May was due to price and currency effects that should prove short-lived. The recovery will continue over the coming months. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea’s rate pause to continue The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.25%. With fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, we think it will take another downturn in the growth outlook to convince... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2 Revised) Today’s revised estimate of Singapore’s second quarter GDP suggests the economy is still struggling for momentum. What’s more, there are a number of headwinds that will likely drag growth lower over... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update No need to panic over maturing FX swaps There still appears to be some confusion over the potential market impact when the RBI’s FX swap facilities mature next month. The RBI has already confirmed that the maturing swaps have been covered... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, suggesting that the pick-up in outflows seen in June was just a blip. The big picture is that they have fallen... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Indonesia’s growth picked up to 5.2% y/y in Q2 from 4.9% the quarter before. While we think the worst for Indonesia’s economy is now over, a combination of fiscal tightening and low commodity prices... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Referendum won’t solve Thailand’s problems Thailand’s upcoming referendum on a new constitution is unlikely to provide a lasting solution to the country’s political problems, and there is a real risk that tensions could once again flare up... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST reform a major step forward The passage of a long-awaited Goods and Service Tax (GST) yesterday by India’s parliament is arguably one of the country’s most important economic reforms of the past couple of decades and should... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Monsoon impact on inflation limited July’s consumer price inflation data is likely to show that the headline rate edged down but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. Suggestions from many commentators... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul. 2016) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in July, but the reading remained lacklustre by past standards. The big picture is that local manufacturers continue to face significant structural constraints. 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds policy rate, but cut likely soon The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% today came as no surprise. However, with price pressures benign and growth likely to slow later this year, we think a... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the worst over for Indonesia and Malaysia? Economic growth in Malaysia and Indonesia has slowed markedly over the past couple of years. While we think the worst is now over for the region’s two main commodity producers, a strong rebound is... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rates to stay on hold as Rajan heads for the exit Governor Raghuram Rajan has had a penchant for shocking financial markets during his three years at the helm of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), but we doubt that there are any surprises in store when... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
