India Economics Update Domestic factors unlikely to cause rupee slump The rupee has been stable against the US dollar in recent months. Looking ahead, suggestions that domestic factors, including calls from within government for a devaluation of the currency and the RBI... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers The majority of governments in commodity-producing EMs are still in the process of adjusting to the new reality of lower commodity prices and are being forced to cut spending. Accordingly, while... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Investors take fright in the Philippines Financial markets in the Philippines have fallen back in recent weeks amid growing concern over the increasingly erratic behaviour of the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte. Following his... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Baht not to blame for Thailand’s export woes Recent claims by Thai exporters and policymakers that a “strong” baht is to blame for the country’s poor export performance are wrong. The baht does not look strong relative to the currencies of its... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower import bill will keep trade deficit in check The monthly trade deficit narrowed a touch in August and, with a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in check, the overall current account position is unlikely to return as a source of... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q2 2016) GDP figures published today show economic growth in Sri Lanka slowed sharply inthe second quarter of 2016. Given the serious doubts that remain about the reliabilityof the data, we are wary of reading... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Corporate bond reform could ease financing constraints Recent measures aimed at reinvigorating India’s domestic corporate bond market are likely to vary in their impact. But overall, the reforms should help to open a new source of financing for Indian... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds policy rate, but easing can’t be ruled out The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but with growth set to slowand inflationary pressures very low, further easing is likely in the coming quarters. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose for the seventh consecutive month in August, and is set to accelerate further over the near term. This supports our view that there is little scope for further... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016) Emerging market consumer spending growth appears to have bottomed out in recent quarters, but the subsequent recovery will be slow going. While the immediate outlook is brightest in Emerging Asia and... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The fall in India’s consumer price inflation rate last month brings it into line with the RBI’s near-term target. This may fuel talk of more interest rate cuts but we think that scope for further... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates to stay on hold until year-end at least With the economy showing some signs of improvement, the Bank of Korea (BoK) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today. While benign inflation will give the BoK scope to keep rates... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly ASEAN still struggling for purpose The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has just concluded its annual meeting in Laos, has little chance of becoming the kind of single market and production base which could one... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world edged up to around $42bn in August from $38bn in July, but they remain well below their peak at the turn of the year. And inflows... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
