Asia Economics Weekly The dangers of decoupling Economic growth across Emerging Asia accelerated last quarter, as strong domestic demand compensated for weak exports. But while this “decoupling” has enabled Emerging Asia to shrug-off the weakness... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack More good news for Indonesia, but problems lie ahead The past month has given investors more reasons to be optimistic on the outlook for Indonesia’s economy. The first piece of good news came in late July when it was announced that the highly-respected... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be concerned about EM equities again? We continue to expect emerging market (EM) equities to rise further in the next couple of years, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. But the rally has fizzled out in recent days, and we suspect... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Two major reasons for cheer Over the past month, two key developments in India have given investors reason to cheer. The first is the passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill, which could bring huge benefits... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Choice of new RBI governor signals policy continuity The announcement over the weekend that Dr Urjit Patel, a current deputy governor, will take over as governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September points to policy continuity and strengthens... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Easing likely to resume in Indonesia soon Bank Indonesia (BI) left its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo, on hold today at 5.25%, but with growth struggling and inflationary pressures low, a rate cut is likely sooner rather than... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export struggles to continue The recent improvement in export performance across Emerging Asia owes more to the fading effects of the collapse in commodity prices on export values than a recovery in underlying demand. We expect... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turnaround in industry supporting EM recovery After a prolonged downturn, there are early signs that EM industry is finally starting to turn a corner. Our measure of EM industrial production growth picked up to 2.4% y/y in June, from 2.2% in May... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rally in equities has further to run Indian equities have rallied over the past few months. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM equity markets, but local factors such as evidence that the government’s reform... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Today’s Q2 GDP data for the Philippines show that President Rodrigo Duterte has taken over a country in good shape. Although the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, Duterte’s... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Indian wholesale price inflation recorded another sharp rise in July, and it looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. This supports our view that there is little scope for further... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) Thailand’s growth slowed last quarter, and the recent bombings in some of the country’s key tourist destinations present a significant downside risk to economic activity. 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Gold bond scheme showing signs of success India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed in July and, with the government’s sovereign gold bond scheme helping to keep a lid on imports of the precious metal, the external position is unlikely to return... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The sharp rise in Indian consumer price inflation in July pushes it further abovethe Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. Prospects for monetary policy depend in part on who is chosen to succeed... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will further rate cuts make a difference in Indonesia? Given the current backdrop of weak growth, low inflation and a stable currency, Bank Indonesia is likely to cut its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo rate, at its upcoming meeting. But more... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
