Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut one more time Bank Indonesia today cut its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%. We believe that one more cut is likely in this cycle. Today’s statement hints that, as long as the recent market calm... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) Malaysia’s economy slowed further in Q4, with growth dropping to 4.5% y/y from 4.7% the quarter before. Against a backdrop of low commodity prices and high household debt, the slowdown looks set to... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Budget preview: deficit targets under pressure The key point of interest in the upcoming budget will be whether the finance ministry implements the large public sector pay rise that the 7 th Pay Commission recommended. We think it will and, with... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What measures are needed to revive the banking sector? Comments last week from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that local banks are in need of "deep surgery" has refocused attention on the ailing sector. Large-scale capital injections, increased private... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower soy oil premium to undermine China’s palm oil demand Despite a slump in Malaysian exports to China, overall Chinese palm oil demand has remained strong. However, the increased competitiveness of soy oil is likely to weigh on Chinese demand for imported... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Aggregate EM capital outflows stood at over $100bn in January and, on a quarterly rolling basis, they increased to a third of a trillion dollars, a record figure by some distance. This continued to be... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to maintain wait and see stance The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today against a backdrop of heightened financial market volatility. While we can’t rule out a rate cut in the coming... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check despite weak export prospects India’s trade deficit narrowed at the start of 2016 as the continued slump in exports was more than offset by another collapse in imports. With a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Wholesale price inflation unexpectedly dropped in January but, looking ahead, it still looks set to return to positive territory in Q1. 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand’s growth eased slightly in the final quarter of 2015, to a seasonally-adjusted 0.8% q/q from 1.0% the quarter before. While fiscal spending should help prop up the economy in 2016, the pace... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Today’s CPI data for January confirm that the Reserve Bank was successful in meeting its near-term inflation target but also highlight the difficult task the RBI faces in achieving its medium-term... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Time to worry about remittance slowdown? The recent slowdown in remittances to the Philippines is not a major cause for concern. In fact, with other sectors of the economy, notably manufacturing and business outsourcing, growing strongly... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Have the gold schemes been a success? The government’s two new schemes aimed at reducing gold imports have had mixed results in their early stages. The Gold Monetisation Scheme has attracted little interest, while the Sovereign Gold Bond... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep rates on hold The decision by the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 4.0% came as no surprise. With growth picking up but inflation low, we doubt the central bank will be... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s debt binge to weigh on growth The sharp rise in Korea’s private sector debt over the past decade has raised concerns about financial stability. While there are good reasons to believe that a crisis is not in the offing, Korea will... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Today’s release of another set of strong GDP data alongside upward revisions to earlier quarters’ growth rates is more likely to deepen doubts about the quality of the official data than improve... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
