Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady as Fed starts to tighten Emerging market (EM) growth remained fairly stable in October, as it has for much of the year. Looking ahead, we expect EM growth to pick up a touch in 2016, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates early next year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%, but dropped the clearest signal yet that an interest rate cut is not far away. We are maintaining our view that the central bank... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets take Fed tightening in their stride Financial markets in India have taken yesterday's decision by the US Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade in their stride. A bigger test might come if the Fed now tightens... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What is holding up the Goods and Services Tax? Passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India continues to be delayed by major issues ranging from disagreements over the tax rate itself to which items will be covered. Given this... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s monetary policy to stay loose throughout 2016 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today ahead of the upcoming US rate decision and amid signs of a stabilising domestic economy. With price pressures... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit looks sustainable despite export weakness India’s trade deficit remained stable in November as the continued slump in exports was offset by another collapse in imports. With this trend set to continue, the overall current account position... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q3) We would be wary of reading too much into today’s GDP figures from Sri Lanka, which suggest the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter. The country’s statistical office has recently rebased its... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do the latest falls in oil prices mean for Asia? The boost to regional growth from the recent slide in global oil prices is likely to be quite small unless consumers decide to spend rather than save the latest windfall. 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening & EMs: what to watch for The likelihood that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates this week has sparked fresh concerns about the knock-on impact on emerging markets. However, we think that most EMs are now well placed... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Indian consumer price inflation in November doesn’t put the RBI’s inflation target for January 2016 under threat, but it does highlight that the central bank cannot be certain of meeting... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Should we worry about money flooding out of Asia? A large amount of capital has flowed into Asia in recent years but the risks posed by these inflows are generally exaggerated. Asian central banks have mopped up net inflows and recycled them into... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price inflation picked up in November and, looking ahead, we think that it will rise further over the coming months and return to positive territory by Q1 2016. 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) India’s industrial sector performed well in October and favourable cyclical factors should help to sustain healthier growth in coming months. But structural headwinds are likely to hold back local... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to panic about Fed lift-off For most of Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. Only in Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore do we think Fed tightening could cause some problems. 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies stable as Fed lift-off approaches Relative calm in most EM currencies over the past month (the Colombian peso and Russian ruble being the obvious exceptions) supports our view that emerging markets are generally well placed to... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Contraction in EM exports to ease in 2016 EM export revenues are on track to fall by a trillion dollars (equivalent to about 3.5% of EM GDP) this year compared to 2014. Although exports are set to remain weak in 2016, we expect the pace of... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
